Analyzing Day 1: Love deal a win for Cavs
— -- The NBA's 2015 free agency has moved fast. Less than 24 hours after the market opened for business at midnight Eastern, 10 of the top 20 free agents on my rankings of projected value have already agreed to terms. (Players can't officially sign contracts until the 2015-16 salary cap is set and the league's moratorium period ends on July 9.)
If you've had a hard time keeping up with the enormous amounts of money getting thrown around in anticipation of how dramatically the salary cap will go up when the NBA's new television deals kick in, you're surely not alone. Let's take a look at all the deals and the implications for their teams.
Kevin Love
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers (re-signed)
Contract: Five-year maximum contract worth approximately $110 million (exact figure will be determined when salary cap is set)
Iman Shumpert
Team: Cavaliers (re-signed)
Contract: Four years, $40 million
What it means: For all the speculation over Love's future during the 2014-15 season, as he struggled to figure out how he fit in a loaded Cavaliers roster, the consensus had developed recently within the league that Love -- as he repeatedly said -- wasn't going anywhere. So the surprise here is less that Love re-signed and more the length of this deal, the maximum possible five years.
The long-term security is useful for Love in case the back injury that limited him lingers. Still, this looks like a win for Cleveland, which has Love locked in at a reasonable price as the cap escalates. Shumpert's number might have come in a little higher than the Cavaliers expected. Fortunately, that doesn't really affect their flexibility at all, and I project he'll be worth more than $10 million a year over the next three seasons.
What's next: ESPN's Chris Broussard and Brian Windhorst reported Wednesday the Cavaliers are close to a five-year, $80 million deal with restricted free agent Tristan Thompson. Cleveland also has to re-sign shooting guard J.R. Smith and backup point guard Matthew Dellavedova to bring back the core of last year's team. Then the Cavaliers can look to use the non-guaranteed contract of center Brendan Haywood to add another piece. Windhorst tweeted Wednesday that Cleveland has "numerous options" for Haywood trades.
Draymond Green
Team: Golden State Warriors (re-signed)
Contract: Five years, $85 million
What it means: So much for the impasse in contract talks between Green and the Warriors reported Wednesday afternoon. Hours later, the two sides reached agreement on a five-year deal that will pay Green about $5 million less than the maximum salary he could have gotten as a restricted free agent. If I were Green, given the other contracts that have been signed in the last 24 hours, I'm not sure I would have signed for a penny less than the maximum. But that could have dragged things out and forced Green to sign an offer sheet with another team to get his money. Still, consider this a victory for Golden State, which will be paying both Green and Klay Thompson sub-max amounts on their new contracts. Even in the offseason, the Warriors keep winning.
What's next: Golden State has some minor work to do around the edges of the roster, but the biggest offseason priority now that Green is locked up will be finding a new home for forward David Lee. The Warriors have to hope that teams like the Lakers and New York Knicks strike out on top-tier free agents and want Lee as a one-year stopgap before trying free agency again next summer, which might reduce the draft-pick compensation Golden State has to send out with Lee to get another team to take his $15.5 million salary.
Amir Johnson
Team: Boston Celtics
Contract: Two years, $24 million
Jonas Jerebko
Team: Celtics (re-signed)
Contract: Two years, $10 million
What it means: The Celtics were one of the few teams to lure a free agent away from another team, signing Johnson from the Toronto Raptors. The favorite of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) fills a need in Boston for a rim protector. While he played both frontcourt positions in Toronto, Johnson was far more effective as a center -- per NBA.com/Stats, the Raptors outscored opponents by 7.7 points per 100 possessions with Johnson in the middle but were minus-0.8 per 100 when he played power forward. That should probably be his primary role going forward. The Celtics also brought back Jerebko, who was effective off the bench as a stretch 4 after being acquired at the trade deadline. Notably, Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald reported that both deals are non-guaranteed in 2016-17, maximizing the team's flexibility going forward. Later in the day, the Celtics brought back forward Jae Crowder on a five-year, $35 million deal that looks good in the context of other deals for similar players. Crowder will make slightly less per year, for example, than the less accomplished Al-Farouq Aminu. At worst, Crowder should be a useful rotation player for the life of the deal. At best, he'll add a 3-point shot and be a tremendous bargain.
What's next: The three signings give Boston 14 players under guaranteed contract, with point guard Phil Pressey (non-guaranteed through July 15) the favorite for the last spot on the roster.
DeMarre Carroll
Team: Toronto Raptors
Contract: Four years, $60 million
What it means: Toronto's offseason priority has clearly been upgrading the team's shaky perimeter defense. Step one was trading backup point guard Greivis Vasquez and replacing him with first-round pick Delon Wright. Adding Carroll is step two, and while the money is remarkably for a player who made just $2.4 million last season, my projections show Carroll as worth every penny for his two-way production.
What's next: One of Wednesday's surprises was the Raptors meeting with free agent Wesley Matthews after signing Carroll, since the two players are similar. Sam Amick tweeted that Toronto pitched Matthews on a lineup where he'd play small forward with Carroll as an undersized power forward. The Raptors could probably find enough cap space for Matthews by renouncing the rights to Lou Williams and trading Terrence Ross. Stay tuned.
Jimmy Butler
Team: Chicago Bulls (re-signed)
Contract: Five-year maximum contract worth approximately $91 million (exact figure will be determined when salary cap is set)
Mike Dunleavy
Team: Bulls (re-signed)
Contract: Three years, $14.4 million
What it means: The Bulls quickly ensured the return of their starting wing players, both free agents. Chicago's maximum qualifying offer to Butler moved him away from the idea of taking an offer sheet from another team to hit the market again as soon as possible. Instead, he settled for getting an option on the final season of the contract, which could put him back in free agency in 2019. The Bulls managed to re-sign Dunleavy for less than the mid-level exception. While he might not still be a starter by the end of the contract, which takes him through age 37, the value is still strong -- I project Dunleavy worth more than $30 million over the next three years.
What's next: Chicago may add a player or two to the back end of the roster -- backup point guard is a need with incumbent Aaron Brooks a free agent -- but the most important part of the Bulls' offseason has already concluded. The lingering question is whether Chicago will pay the luxury tax for the second time in franchise history. These two deals put the Bulls about $5 million over, so they'd have to move a player to dodge the tax.
Kawhi Leonard
Team: San Antonio Spurs (re-signed)
Contract: Five-year maximum contract worth approximately $91 million (exact figure will be determined when salary cap is set)
Danny Green
Team: San Antonio Spurs (re-signed)
Contract: Four years, $45 million
What it means: The Spurs locking up both their wing starters means no other team can mess up their pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge with a monster offer for Green or Leonard. Both players will wait until after Aldridge makes his decision to sign, allowing San Antonio to keep their smaller cap holds on the books rather than their larger first-year salaries. The Spurs also got great deals. Leonard projects to be worth more than the five-year max over just the first three seasons of such a contract, while I projected Green's value at $73 million over the next three years. He surely could have done better on the open market but showed loyalty to San Antonio.
What's next: Aldridge?
Tyson Chandler
Team: Phoenix Suns
Contract: Four years, $52 million
Brandon Knight
Team: Suns (re-signed)
Contract: Four years, $70 million
What it means: After coming to terms with the restricted Knight, the Suns turned their attention elsewhere to sign Chandler away from a variety of other suitors. A four-year contract for Chandler is a slight concern, given his injury history and age (36 by contract's end). Those factors are mitigated by Chandler going from one highly regarded athletic training staff to another. If Chandler is going to be healthy and productive anywhere, it's Phoenix.
What's next: While signing Chandler used up basically all of the Suns' cap space, they still immediately went into a meeting with Aldridge pitching the idea of playing the two free agents together. To clear space, Phoenix would probably need to move both Morris twins, along with some other salaries. Young center Alex Len could be expendable with the addition of Chandler, though Phoenix may be viewing Len as insurance should Chandler's health be an issue.
Paul Millsap
Team: Atlanta Hawks (re-signed)
Contract: Three years, $59 million
What it means: After losing Carroll, the Hawks ensured the return of one of their starting forwards by re-signing Millsap late in the day. Previously, their offer to the two-time All-Star had been reported at four years and $80 million. A three-year deal should work somewhat better for Atlanta, since it limits the small potential risk of Millsap declining significantly by his mid-30s. I project his value at $73 million over the life of this contract.
What's next: Having re-signed Millsap and traded for center Tiago Splitter from the San Antonio Spurs, the Hawks are now out of cap space. That leaves them with only their $2.8 million room exception to chase a Carroll replacement.
Goran Dragic
Team: Miami Heat (re-signed)
Contract: Five years, $90 million
What it means: Having given up two first-round picks for Dragic at the trade deadline, there was never really much chance of Miami letting him go. They stepped up with a larger offer than any other team could have made Dragic, keeping him in the fold. This deal might be a slight overpay. I project Dragic's value at $51 million over the next three years, and it's unlikely he'll still be worth $20 million a year by the final season of the contract, when he'll be 34.
What's next: The Heat will continue negotiating with their other starting guard, Dwyane Wade.
Brook Lopez
Team: Brooklyn Nets (re-signed)
Contract: Three years, $60 million
Thaddeus Young
Team: Nets (re-signed)
Contract: Four years, $50 million
What it means: The Nets were the first of many teams to bring back their starting lineups intact, quickly agreeing on new contracts with their frontcourt of Young and Lopez that spurred a playoff run after Young's acquisition at the trade deadline. Those results aside, there's reason to worry about both deals. Lopez didn't crack my top 30 in value because of his poor RPM and injury history. If he stays healthy, he should justify a max salary, but if his foot is problematic again this contract could be a rare overpay. And $50 million over four years is just past the edge of Young's value, which I project at $34 million over the next three.
What's next: A couple of members of Brooklyn's second unit, Alan Anderson and Mirza Teletovic, are restricted free agents. The Nets will have to weigh their value against the cost of leaping far over the luxury tax. Brooklyn already has about $93 million committed to 10 players under guaranteed contract, putting the Nets over the tax line. They might be able to trim that bill by trading Joe Johnson in the final season of his massive contract.
Khris Middleton
Team: Milwaukee Bucks (re-signed)
Contract: Five years, $70 million
What it means: The Bucks headed off the possibility of a lucrative offer sheet for Middleton, a restricted free agent, with a five-year offer that should age well. Because of Middleton's terrific RPM, I project his value at more than $60 million over the next three seasons.
What's next: Agreeing with Middleton early and delaying his signing allows Milwaukee to utilize its full $16 million or so in cap room. The Bucks reportedly met with center Robin Lopez on Wednesday as they look to fill their need in the middle.
Paul Pierce
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Contract: Three years, $10.6 million
What it means: The Clippers secured one of the day's best bargains by convincing Pierce to pass up the chance to make $6-plus million with the Washington Wizards next season to return home for a deal starting at $3.4 million (the taxpayer mid-level exception). I project Pierce's value at more than $30 million over the next three seasons, and he'll make about a third of that in that span. That's a huge break for a Clippers team that needed one given its precarious cap position.
What's next: Adding Pierce may help the Clippers sell DeAndre Jordan on the idea of returning to L.A. as an unrestricted free agent. If Jordan leaves, the Clippers will have few good ways to replace him. But if Jordan does re-sign, the Clippers will remain in the mix for the Western Conference title.
Al-Farouq Aminu
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Contract: Four years, $30 million
What it means: This deal, the first agreed to by a free agent to join a new team, was a little tough to accept at first. After all, Aminu played for the veteran's minimum last season and averaged just 5.6 points per game in Dallas. However, Aminu's strong RPM is a clue toward his value as a wing defender and an undersized power forward. I project him as worth $34 million over just the next three seasons, making this deal a strong one. The Blazers probably see Aminu more as a small forward after trading Nicolas Batum for 4-man Noah Vonleh last week. In that case, he could certainly stand to improve his outside shooting.
What's next: Assuming veterans Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews all head elsewhere -- a safe one at this point -- Portland will still have more than $30 million in cap space to pursue other free agents who fit with the team's timetable. The Blazers have quickly amassed a core of players in their early- to mid-20s, including Aminu (25 in September).
Brandan Wright
Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Contract: Three years, $17 million
What it means: The Grizzlies replaced backup center Kosta Koufos, an unrestricted free agent, with Wright. The high-percentage finisher gives Memphis a very different look in its frontcourt. Like Koufos, he could potentially play with both of Memphis' starters up front, Marc Gasol -- assuming he re-signs -- and Zach Randolph. He's a solid value at this price (I project his production as worth $27 million over the next three years).
What's next: All indications are a new contract for Gasol will be completed quickly, in which case the heaviest lifting of Memphis' offseason is already over. The Grizzlies likely will stay active in the trade market for a wing upgrade, but using the non-taxpayer mid-level to sign Wright does subject them to the hard cap $4 million greater than the luxury-tax line. That shouldn't be a major issue, as Memphis could still spend about $8 million more if the cap falls at $68 million.
Kyle Singler
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder (re-signed)
Contract: Five years, $25 million
What it means: It's tough to overpay with the cap escalating so quickly, but the Thunder might have managed to do so. I project Singler's value at less than $9 million total over the next three seasons. He hasn't been far above replacement level over the course of his career, and the rising cap doesn't change the value of a replacement-level player. If Singler plays more like 2013-14, when he posted an impressive .574 true shooting percentage, he'll be worth this deal. Last year's below-average .512 true shooting (.461 in Oklahoma City) won't cut it.
What's next: The Thunder still have to deal with the other restricted free agent they added at the deadline, center Enes Kanter. Oklahoma City is already almost at the luxury-tax line, and re-signing Kanter will surely push them deep into the tax. The Thunder could look to move reserves Perry Jones and Steve Novak to cut their bill.
Alexis Ajinca
Team: New Orleans Pelicans (re-signed)
Contract: Four years, $20 million
What it means: Ajinca was a bargain backup center for the Pelicans the past two seasons in his second NBA stint, with a return to France in between. He'll still be effective but no longer a bargain after agreeing to a new contract. In the context of the rising cap, Ajinca will be making less than the mid-level exception, which isn't so bad for a backup center. The big concern to me is whether New Orleans should be playing (or paying) two traditional centers when their best option at center is Anthony Davis. ESPN's Marc Stein reported Wednesday night that the Pelicans agreed to a five-year deal with starting center Omer Asik. The annual salary isn't terrible, especially since Stein reported that the final season of Asik's contract (when he'll be 33) is non-guaranteed.
What's next: Bringing back Asik ensures New Orleans plays this summer over the cap, giving the Pelicans the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.5 million) to add to their roster. The Pelicans will also likely look to re-sign restricted free agent Norris Cole.
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