Fantasy MLB: Target Strasburg, Giants bats on Wednesday

ByTODD ZOLA
April 12, 2016, 10:13 PM

— -- In an effort to serve daily fantasy players and season-long fantasy players who use daily lineup settings, we present daily notes each day of the season. It's a daily version of our Fantasy Forecaster in which we project the best pitcher game scores as well as the best team-hitting matchups based upon a number of factors.

Pitching

[Editor's note: Pirates pitcher  Francisco Liriano will not start Wednesday due to a hamstring issue. Updated pitcher Game Scores will be forthcoming.]

Elite

When projected Game Scores are the same, there are several ways to break the tie. When comparing Stephen Strasburg to Carlos Carrasco, Strasburg is at home in a National League park, earning two checkmarks. Most importantly, after opening the season against the offensively challenged Atlanta Braves, Strasburg faces them again, this time in Nationals Park. The visitors recorded the third-lowest weighted on-base average (wOBA) in the majors over the first week of the season. This, along with a healthy 24 percent strikeout rate, puts Strasburg in the catbird's seat with a strong outing in store.

That said, Carrasco is in a very good spot and thus is in play for DFS enthusiasts on multiple-pitcher sites or those looking for a contrarian option. The Cleveland Indians righty is looking to bounce back from a curious opener that saw him fan five Boston Red Sox in five innings, walking only one but also serving up three long balls. Take the under on three homers as Carrasco has the Tampa Bay Rays on the docket in Tropicana Field, one of the stingiest venues in the game with respect to power.

Solid

Search "if he can stay healthy" and you'll probably be directed to a pre-season fantasy piece on Drew Smyly. Like Carrasco, Smyly also surrendered three dingers to a strong offense in his inaugural 2015 effort, but then again, the Toronto Blue Jays rough up many a hurler. Smyly has elite skills, but as implied, he needs to avoid the injury bug. Also like Carrasco, Smyly will face a scuffling offense in what's likely to be a pitchers' duel. The Tribe are slow out of the gate, with a wOBA in the bottom third in the league while fanning the fourth most. Since neither Carrasco or Smyly enjoy a huge edge when it comes to earning a win, neither are ideal cash-game fodder but both are viable GPP options.

The best solid option for cash-game players is steady John Lackey, as the Chicago Cubs entertain the Cincinnati Reds in Wrigley Field. Lackey didn't fare very well to open the campaign, yielding six runs in six stanzas in the desert to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Expect a better outing this time, even though the guests have hit better than expected early on. While Strasburg is still far and away the premier cash play, Lackey is viable on multiple pitcher sites.

An under-the-radar choice for both cash and GPP DFS action is Jerad Eickhoff, who's leading the Philadelphia Phillies against the San Diego Padres in the City of Brotherly Love. Eickhoff impressed late last season and carried that through this spring, earning a spot in the Phillies' young, improving rotation. While he'll never carry the strikeout rate of an ace, Eickhoff can maintain a level above league average with good control. The Padres' bats awoke in Colorado but have been dormant outside of Coors Field, affording Eickhoff a solid opportunity to go deep into the contest with a chance to win.

The Seattle Mariners' Taijuan Walker closes out the solid section with a home date against Texas. The visitors are hoping top prospect Noma Mazara can spark a struggling offense as he takes the spot of the injured Shin-Soo Choo. Walker can be wild but he also can be dominant. With the safety of Safeco Field as a backdrop, the reward of the latter trumps the risk of the former.

Streamers

Hot spots

Half the scheduled starters qualify as streamers, sporting a projected Game Score of less than 50, but we're going to take a little liberty and highlight a streaming option that sits exactly at 50, since he's not likely to be on many rosters (thus is available for pickup). Logan Verrett gets the call to fill in for Jacob deGrom against the Miami Marlins in Citi Field. Verrett started in the spring, so he should still be stretched out enough to throw ample innings to qualify for the win. His peripherals are basically league average, which should be sufficient to give his team a shot against the Fish.

This may be a result of some confirmation bias as Adam Conley was a personal favorite during drafting season, but facing the strikeout prone New York Mets puts him in a good spot against Verrett. When looking at Conley's stats from his opener, keep in mind that the conditions were poor and he was lifted after a long rain delay.

Mike Leake isn't sexy but he's generally an option for home tilts in Busch Stadium, especially against a weaker lineup like the Milwaukee Brewers. Don't expect a bevy of punchouts, but if you're looking for solid innings with a chance at a win, Leake is in play.

Another pitcher of that ilk is Eric Surkamp, as the Oakland Athletics welcome the Los Angeles Angels' anemic offense into O. Co. Coliseum. The Halos are extremely stingy with the whiffs but also sport a wOBA near the cellar.

If Phil Hughes can keep the ball in the yard, he has a good chance at a solid outing. The Chicago White Sox have a couple of power sticks in Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier, but thus far, the thunder has been quiet, so Hughes is another safe play in search of the elusive victory.

Cold springs

While there are some close calls, the only two starters who should be shunned completely are predictably squaring off in Coors Field (sorry,  Jake Peavy and Jordan Lyles).

Hitting

Obviously, Coors Field is the place to look for hitting. Of the two squads, the visiting San Francisco Giants are the better target, facing Jordan Lyles. It's not often that a stack in Coors is referred to as contrarian, but using the home team against Jake Peavy qualifies.

There are five other scenarios of note which curiously all share the same caveat; while the opposing pitcher has a weakness, they've all shown the ability to pitch well. Picking on them could backfire.

The prime scenario is the Baltimore Orioles taking on the Boston Red Sox with Joe Kelly taking the hill for the Fenway Faithful. Kelly ended last season on a roll and looked good for three innings in his opening start until the Toronto Blue Jays opened the flood gates in the fourth. If you're not looking for a stack but just one hitter, Chris Davis has the goods to carry a DFS squad on his own.

Last year, injuries curtailed what was supposed to be a breakthrough campaign for Shane Greene. A strong spring earned him a rotation spot for the Tigers. However, the Pittsburgh Pirates are dangerous versus right-handed pitching and are a very good place to look for bats. Righty  Starling Marte leads the pack, despite not enjoying the platoon edge over Greene.

The free-swinging Chicago Cubs are in play against almost every hurler, but with the inconsistent Alfredo Simon taking the bump in Wrigley Field, they could be the best place to look for a standard DFS stack. Left-handers Jason Heyward and Anthony Rizzo are the prime beneficiaries.

The party line in the spring was that J.A. Happ won't be the same guy he was in Pittsburgh, moving to the American League East with the Toronto Blue Jays. He kept the Tampa Bay Rays in check in his Blue Jay debut, but now, he has to tame the New York Yankees. While Happ has the platoon advantage over many of the Yankees' better hitters, including table-setters Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, righties such as  Starlin Castro and Alex Rodriguez, as well as switcher-hitters Carlos Beltran and Chase Headley, are in play.

If you're looking for an under-the-radar stack, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be challenged by Rubby De La Rosa in Dodger Stadium. De La Rosa is an industry favorite to take it to the next level but until he does, he's fair game. The contrarian nature of this choice is due to a slow start from the home team. That said, the likes of Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson with the platoon edge and the talented Yasiel Puig are always dangerous.