NFL MVP Poll: It's the GOAT vs. a Ram for the crown
— -- With only one more week to play in the regular season, the MVP race seems clear. Sure, Todd Gurley made up some ground on Tom Brady in this week's poll. But with the Rams resting their star running back in Week 17, it's hard to imagine what could effect a change at the top.
Down the list? Maybe if Russell Wilson delivers a superhuman performance to lift the Seahawks into the playoffs, he could crack the top five. Same for Philip Rivers if the Chargers get in. And who knows what a defensive lineman such as Aaron Donald or Calais Campbell has up his sleeve in a season finale that could vault him into our top five.
For now, though, the name at the top is as obvious as it gets.
Methodology: Our panel of 12 experts nominated their top five candidates. First-place votes are worth five points, second-place votes worth four, third-place votes worth three, fourth-place votes worth two and fifth-place votes worth one. The top five finishers are highlighted in the following graphic. Full results can be found at the bottom.
TOP FIVE
1. Tom Brady, QB | New England Patriots
Regular-season passing: 367-for-544 (67.5 percent); 4,387 yards; 30 TDs; 8 INTs; 71.4 Total QBR
The case for Brady: He's first in passing yards, second in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, third in touchdown passes, third in QBR and tied with Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger for first in wins. Brady also kills it in some of the advanced metrics, such as Football Outsiders' DYAR stat, which measures total passing value. But as far as MVP candidates go, he's the quarterback for the team in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and he's playing lights out. That wins you MVP honors.
The case against Brady: The only case you can really make against Brady is a case for someone else, combined with your own belief or conclusion that the other case is stronger. There's some nitpicking that could be done, including the fact that Brady has five interceptions and only four touchdown passes in his past four games. And the loss in Miami was an absolute clunker. But the nitpicking doesn't overcome the excellence.
2. Todd Gurley, RB | Los Angeles Rams
Regular-season rushing: 279 carries; 1,305 yards; 13 TDs
Regular-season receiving: 64 receptions; 788 yards; 6 TDs
The case for Gurley: He leads the league with a stunning 2,093 total yards from scrimmage, including a league-leading 1,305 rushing yards and another 788 receiving yards (good for top 30 in the league overall) on 57 catches. He also leads in total touchdowns with 19 -- six more than Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Gurley's 19 scrimmage touchdowns is a higher number than the passing touchdown total of all but 16 quarterbacks in the league. Oh, and the running back has been particularly incredible over the past three weeks while the Rams were playing potential playoff teams and sewing up their NFC West title. Gurley has 366 rushing yards (most in the league), 225 receiving yards (10th in the league) and eight total touchdowns over the past three weeks.
The case against Gurley: Running backs don't tend to win the award unless: 1) They're having some kind of historic season, ala Adrian Peterson in 2012; and 2) There's not a clear-cut quarterback candidate. As brilliant as Gurley's season has been, he's not breaking any records. And the quarterback in New England has done nothing to deserve not to win it. Gurley's case is strong, but for a running back to win MVP, circumstances have to be different than they are this year.
