UFC Fight Night predictions: Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
— -- A busy, busy month of mixed martial arts rolls on with Saturday's UFC Fight Night card at United Center in Chicago.
In the main event, former female bantamweight champion Holly Holm will look to avoid back-to-back losses when she meets Peruvian standout Valentina Shevchenko.
In the co-main, former Strikeforce lightweight champion and two-time UFC title challenger Gilbert Melendez will attempt to put a one-year drug suspension behind him and make some noise against highly regarded Edson Barboza.
Let's take a closer look at the main event and take a shot at predictions on the other main card fights.
Main event
Holly Holm (10-1) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (12-2)
Bantamweights
Odds: Holm -300; Shevchenko +250
Yes, Holm is still very much a work in progress on the ground. That's true. It's also true she was only 90 seconds away from defeating Miesha Tate in March. Tate, of course, is one of the more savvy submission grapplers in the division.
The point is, as uncomfortable as Holm looked on the ground during her loss to Tate, that doesn't mean it's now easy to put her on the floor and choke her out. It's a weakness in her game, for sure -- and she has had only four months to address it since the loss -- but it's not as if some secret is out now and her career is over. She's still very difficult to take down, and any failed attempt to do so leaves one exposed to her striking.
Shevchenko is more known for standup than her grappling, although she did wrestle a fair amount in her UFC debut in 2015 and recorded five submission victories in her first seven fights. Her background is in tae kwon do and muay Thai, and the takedowns she does get are typically from the clinch. If she has a physical advantage on an opponent, she'll definitely look to use it in that clinch. If she doesn't, as was the case in a recent loss to Amanda Nunes, she won't look to engage the position as much.
We're looking at two southpaws here, and both like to throw rear leg kicks. Shevchenko tends to load up a little more and throws it as a single strike, whereas Holm will pop it off more frequently and at the end of combinations. Shevchenko isn't one to "dance" when she fights. She's more likely to stand her ground, stare down the barrel of the gun and look to counter.
She very well may have an advantage on the ground but, again, Holm is not easy to bring down. Holm's kicks aren't easy to catch and she has very good hip strength. Her team also will be extremely familiar with Shevchenko. Holm's coach, Greg Jackson, was in Sarah Kaufman's corner against Shevchenko seven months ago.
If this fight goes the distance, it will favor Holm. Her endurance is outstanding, especially when you consider she's one of the bigger women in this division and she's more active than Shevchenko. In close rounds, I believe judges will tend to favor Holm's style over Shevchenko's -- unless, of course, she can get Holm down.
Prediction: Not expecting a "boring" fight, but not expecting fireworks, either. I think we'll see mutual respect and, ultimately, a five-round decision for Holm.
Rest of the main card
Edson Barboza (17-7) vs. Gilbert Melendez (22-5), lightweights
Now this is an action fight. Barboza is coming off that hot performance over Anthony Pettis. Look out for close rounds, with Barboza getting the edge.
Prediction: Barboza via decision, 29-28.
Francis Ngannou (7-1) vs. Bojan Mihajlovic (10-3), heavyweights
With this fight originally booked back in April, the UFC must have been keen on seeing this matchup, as it's rebooked here and in a prime spot. Mihajlovic is a UFC newcomer.
Prediction: Ngannou via TKO.
Felice Herrig (10-6) vs. Kailin Curran (4-2), strawweights
The 25-year-old Curran is still a little raw, and Herrig, despite taking a year off, is capable of exposing holes with her grappling and experience. Tough fight to call.
Prediction: Curran via decision.
