Who's Counting: Cheney's One Percent Doctrine
Vice President Said to Feel That If There's a 1 Percent Chance, Then Act
A trivial example is provided by elections where X percent is 50 percent, but let me end with a somewhat unusual and counterintuitive example, which involves an idealization of the dating process. Say that a woman has reason to believe she will have up to N sequential suitors during her dating life and wants to maximize her chances of choosing the "best" one. The optimal strategy she should follow is to reject the first 37 percent of her suitors and then accept the next one who is better than all his predecessors.
Whether the issue is war, science, or a myriad of other issues, probability and evidence should play a critical role.
Professor of mathematics at Temple University, John Allen Paulos is the author of best-selling books including "Innumeracy" and "A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market." His "Who's Counting?" column on ABCNews.com appears the first weekend of every month.
