Transcript for FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver Projects the 2014 Senate Races
And once again, Nate silver completely nailed it. President Obama calling out election Oracle, ESPN's Nate silver. He predicted every state in the last presidential election. And we've all been waiting to hear his mid-term projections. Will republicans pick off enough democratic seats to take back the senate? Jon Karl got the first look. Reporter: In the world of political prognostication -- I am Nate silver! No one beats the buzz of Nate silver. And at the brand new fivethirtyeight.com headquarters -- this is where it all happens. It is. This is our new news room. Reporter: The stat guru and his team have been crunching the number S. Who will win the senate? Nate has the projections that Washington has been waiting for. The critical number is six. That's how much republicans need to take back control of the senate. 36 races overall, and most of these are not competitive. We have a group of races to put aside. And even just with that, republicans pick up three seats. West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana. Reporter: So a large group of states in the mid- term election to be up for grabs. We are going to sort these in order of most likely to least-likely pickups for the gop. Arkansas is one where they have been pretty consistently ahead in the polls. You know, we give them probably a 70% chance of winning in Arkansas. Reporter: Okay, next up is Louisiana. Louisiana, about 55%. North Carolina, it's more of a purple state. That's as close to 50-50 as it gets. Reporter: Stop there. These three seats where republicans have a very good chance of winning. Sure. That's the path of least resistance I would think. Reporter: But not the only one. Nate gives the gop a good shot in Alaska, and also blue states, Michigan, Colorado and Iowa. What about Scott brown in new Hampshire? We think the republican opportunity is a little overhyped. Scott brown was extremely popular in a different state four years ago. Reporter: The gop's chance of a win there? Just 25%. This is the drum roll. Republicans need six seats, what's the projection? How many are they going to pick up? I'd say exactly six. But it's probably six plus or minus five. Reporter: That means they could pick up 11 seats. They could. Yeah. Reporter: What you're saying is a 60% chance that republicans win the senate. Something like that. Kind of imagine like a bell curve distribution, sort of. This is the most likely outcome. This is what republicans need to take over. This is 51 for them. So you see probably 60% of the pie is colored in here. Reporter: Translation for the math impaired, Nate's projection is a 40% chance democrats hold on, but a 60% chance the gop wins. With a 30% shot they win big. Still a lot of time, but a pretty decent chance of a really big win. That's right. Reporter: Nate silver, thank you very much. We'll be watching what happens. Thank you. And our thanks to Jon. And Nate's full list just posted at fivethirtyeight.com. Let's get the roundtable's
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