Let the Counting Begin, Polls Closed in Race to Replace Kennedy.

Jan. 19, 2010— -- Polls have closed in Massachusetts for a hotly contested special election to decide who will take the Senate seat held for 46 years by the late Edward Kennedy.

Hanging in the balance is what the outcome could mean for health care overhaul and President Obama's overall agenda, because if Republican Scott Brown defeats Democrat Martha Coakley, it would mean the end of the Democrats' super majority in the Senate.

Brown, 50, is in a surprising neck-and-neck race with Coakley, 56, even though just a few weeks ago most polls showed Coakley with a solid lead.

The last time a Republican senator was elected in Massachusetts was November 1972, when Edward Brooke won the seat. And given the history of Massachusetts' voting pattern, Brown's popularity is a surprise to many.

Tonight, a lawyer for Coakley alleged there were reports from voters of ballots being pre-marked with a vote for Brown, possibly laying a foundation for a vote recount.

"Let there be no doubt, those are spoiled ballots, they should not be counted. And they should be preserved by the local election officials. We have brought it to the attention of the Secretary of State's office," said Democratic lawyer Marc Elias.

"We just want to make sure for the people going forward for the remainder of the day take the time and they don't just walk out without voting, or cast the ballot that's been pre-marked," he said.

The White House acknowledged today that Obama "was both surprised and frustrated" by how hotly contested the special election has become. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters today that the president is "not pleased" with how much Coakley is struggling.

But when asked if Obama believes health care overhaul efforts will die if Brown wins, Gibbs said, "Let's wait for the results. I don't think the president believes that."

Gibbs said that no matter what happens in Massachusetts tonight, "we face a set of circumstances that have to be addressed and have to be dealt with" and there isn't a new agenda that will be based on tonight's results.

If Brown is elected, Senate Democrats would lose the 60-seat majority they now enjoy and that they need to avoid a Republican filibuster of the health care bill.

"I think you can make a pretty good argument that health care might be dead," Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" today when asked about the Democrats' contingency plan.

In case of a Democratic loss, sources said, the White House wants the House to vote directly on the same bill the Senate passed Christmas Eve which would avoid the need for a conference to reconcile the two bills. It would prevent Brown from having any chance to cast a vote on health care.

Administration officials argue that if it's not the Senate bill, then there may not be any health care overhaul. But with some moderate Democrats on the sidelines, there would likely not be enough votes to pass the Senate bill.

"To be honest with you, that's going to be a very hard sell for everybody," Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., said Monday in an MSNBC interview. "And it's not just a Progressive Caucus issue. It really would require a lot of trust to say that there would be a follow-on to incorporate some of these changes."

Today, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., effectively denied that any talk of avoiding reconciliation was taking place. Instead, she said members of Congress are moving forward with reconciling the Senate and House bills and wouldn't say if there is a back-up plan should Brown win.

"Regardless of what happens in Massachusetts, we still have to resolve the differences between our two bills," Pelosi told reporters today. "Our eye is on the ball of passing legislation. In order to do that, we have to resolve some differences, establish some priorities, make some decisions."

Pelosi, who has visited the White House several times in the past few weeks to discuss health care, said today that Democrats would move ahead with their legislation regardless of what happens in Massachusetts.

"Whatever happens in Massachusetts, we will have quality affordable health care," she said.

Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., was asked today that if Brown wins and assuming the maximum amount of time to certify the election is 15 days, is it feasible to pass legislation the magnitude of health care reform in the next 15 days, to which the House majority leader replied, "Yes."

Other Democrats also echoed Pelosi's comments.

"We might not get the biggest package, but I can tell you this much. Democrats will continue to fight to make major changes in our health care system," Democratic strategist Donna Brazile said on "Good Morning America" today.

Even some Republicans doubt that the momentum on health care overhaul would die down completely. Republican strategist Mary Matalin said on "GMA" today that Brown's win wouldn't necessarily mean that health care is dead. But it would mean that members of Congress have to start from scratch.

"If he's in there, we can go back to the drawing board and we can get those kinds of reforms that people want," Matalin said.

Even if Brown were to win, Democrats would still have the largest Senate majority either party has enjoyed since 1979. They just won't have the 60 votes to avoid a Republican filibuster.

One idea House Democrats were discussing, assuming Brown wins, is having Senate Democrats force the bill through by bypassing normal Senate rules and passing the legislation through reconciliation, which requires only 50 votes.

But sources say that idea is off the table, because it would mean they have to start over and would also risk losing some moderates, and that could cost Democratic leaders the health care legislation.

Americans' views on health care have stayed stagnant since August.

In an ABC News/Washington Post poll released today, 51 percent of Americans said they oppose health care overhaul efforts, with only 44 percent in favor.

At its peak, in September and again in November, 30 percent of Americans "strongly" backed the proposed changes. With the plan still undergoing modifications, that has dropped to 22 percent, a new low. Substantially more, 39 percent, are strongly opposed, a number that's held steadier than the percentage of those who support the proposed changes.