Which 2024 elections are flying under the radar?

On the ballot this year: representation, local control and how Americans vote.

January 3, 2024, 10:41 AM

While the race for president has sucked up most of the coverage of the 2024 elections as of late, it's not the only thing that voters will decide on in the coming year. Issues like voting, minority representation and control over local governments are all on the ballot too. Here are three types of elections this year that have flown under the radar but could have big impacts on Americans in many states and municipalities across the country:

1. Ranked-choice voting ballot measures

This year could see a record-breaking number of states vote on referendums to implement or repeal ranked-choice voting, a system that lets voters rank their candidate choices rather than choosing just one. While 21 states currently use ranked-choice voting in limited or local instances, only two presently use the process as a major part of statewide and/or federal elections — Alaska and Maine. In 2024, that number could double … or decline, depending on the fate of three ballot measures likely to go before voters this year.

In Alaska, opponents of the state's ranked-choice voting system say they are on track to gather enough signatures to place a repeal measure on the ballot this November. Their opposition to the RCV process stems in part from frustration over the electoral victories of Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, each of whom beat back challenges from conservative Republican candidates in 2022. Both received significant cross-party support, and their wins infuriated many conservatives, who claimed Peltola and Murkowski would have lost under the old electoral system.

The repeal has a solid chance of succeeding, should it make the ballot: In a poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research last fall, 54 percent of respondents said they supported the repeal effort. And a poll conducted last April by Dittman Research also showed the measure ahead, with 51 percent of Alaskans supporting and 47 percent opposing the repeal. Should the repeal pass, Murkowski in particular would have a much rockier path to reelection in 2028, as she would not be able to rely on the Democrats and independents who voted for her in 2022 to help her win renomination — and a spot on the general election ballot — in a Republican Party primary.

Over in Nevada, voters will head to the polls for the second time to vote on implementing a ranked-choice system in the state. Voters already approved such a ballot measure in 2022, but the state constitution requires citizen-initiated amendments to pass twice before they are enacted, which means the measure will be up again in 2024.

The Nevada referendum has an interesting coalition of opponents from across the political spectrum, ranging from both of the state's Democratic U.S. Senators and the influential state culinary union, to Republican Rep. Mark Amodei and conservative outside groups like Americans for Tax Reform. They argue that ranked-choice voting would be too confusing for voters and would diminish state parties' ability to choose their own candidates. Supporters, including the American Civil Liberties Union and various voting rights groups, argue that the measure would empower independent and nonpartisan voters, and would reduce political polarization. The amendment initially passed in 2022 with a somewhat tenuous 53 percent of the vote, leaving the second vote's fate this November far from certain.

Oregonians will also weigh in on a ballot measure this year that would enact ranked-choice voting in statewide and federal elections. This measure differs from the ones in Alaska and Nevada in that it was put on the ballot by the Democratic-controlled state legislature, rather than through a citizen initiative. That could signal stronger support for the amendment among the state's Democratic Party establishment — although almost all Republicans opposed the measure in the legislature. Additionally, some cities and counties in Oregon already use ranked-choice voting, meaning that some voters in the state are already familiar with the process and might be less intimidated by it. That may boost the measure's prospects in a year where the future of ranked-choice voting in other states faces a more challenging outlook.

Other places to watch are Washington, D.C., and Montana. In D.C., a proposed ranked-choice voting initiative is in limbo after the local Democratic Party filed a lawsuit to keep it off the ballot. Even if the lawsuit fails, though, the measure would still have to gather enough signatures before landing on the ballot in 2024. And in Montana, activists are gathering signatures for an initiative that would create an open top-four primary election for most offices in the state, similar to Alaska. The measure, however, would not mandate ranked-choice voting, which the state legislature banned last year. Instead, it would let lawmakers decide what process to use if no candidate receives over 50 percent support in the general election.

2. Opportunities for historic representation in Congress

This could also prove a historic year for minority representation in Congress. Perhaps most strikingly, the 2024 election could produce a record number of Black women in the U.S. Senate. As things stand, three Senate races in particular look set to determine if this is a history-making year, with a special emphasis on each contest's primary because all three elections will take place in solidly Democratic states.

In Delaware, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tom Carper. She made history in 2016 as the first woman and first Black person to represent Delaware in Congress, and would break similar ground in 2024 if her Senate bid is successful. Delaware is a solidly Democratic state, having voted for President Joe Biden by 19 percentage points in 2020, and given that she is currently unopposed in the primary, many observers view her campaign as a shoo-in.

In even bluer Maryland, Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has positioned herself as one of the leading candidates in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin. However, Alsobrooks faces Rep. David Trone in the Democratic primary, which has made her path to victory more difficult than Blunt Rochester's. Trone, a wealthy businessman, had poured almost $10 million of his own money into the race as of the end of September and leads in the limited public polling we've seen of the race so far. Still, the powerful state Democratic machine has largely coalesced behind Alsobrooks, who's snagged endorsements from an impressive array of federal, state and local officials, including Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. If Alsobrooks can get through the primary, she would be the favorite to become Maryland's first Black senator in a state where almost a third of the population is Black.

Over in California, Rep. Barbara Lee has a much rockier path to the Senate. Running for the seat vacated by the death of former Sen. Dianne Feinstein, she's in the political fight of her life against fellow Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff, both of whom are fundraising juggernauts. Unlike Blunt Rochester or Alsobrooks, Lee isn't running in a party primary, but has to contend with California's top-two primary system, in which all candidates regardless of party run together and the leading two vote-getters advance to the general election. But even making it to November looks like an uphill battle for Lee, who has generally trailed both Porter and Schiff in early primary polling. The race isn't over for Lee quite yet, though: With more than two months to go until the March 5 primary, a fifth of respondents were undecided in the latest SurveyUSA poll.

This year might also mark an important milestone for LGBTQ representation in Congress. Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride, who became the first transgender state senator in U.S. history in 2021, is well-positioned to become the first openly transgender person elected to Congress. Last June, McBride announced her candidacy for Delaware's at-large congressional seat, which Blunt Rochester is leaving behind for her Senate run. McBride quickly collected endorsements from state Attorney General Kathy Jennings, the Democratic leadership in the state Senate, and influential Democratic organizations like EMILY's List and End Citizens United.

McBride leads the pack in fundraising too, reporting $567,000 cash on hand at the end of September. That's more than four times her closest competitor, Delaware State Housing Authority Director Eugene Young. McBride's election would mark a notable milestone for LGBTQ representation in Congress, where only 2 percent of members currently identify as lesbian, gay or bisexual.

3. Big changes in some of America's largest cities

While many cities hold mayoral elections in off (or off-off) years, several of the country's biggest municipalities will select new leaders in 2024. These elections often fly under the radar, for voters and candidates alike: The mayor of Fresno, California, the largest Republican-led city with a mayoral race this year, has yet to draw a major challenger. But the outcome of these races will determine who gets to set local policy on a number of important issues, including taxes, transportation and housing shortages.

In San Francisco, Mayor London Breed is running for reelection in what is likely to be a highly contentious race. San Francisco has struggled in recent years with one of the nation's worst housing crises and an epidemic of drug overdoses, and critics are chomping at the bit at the opportunity for an overhaul of the current city administration. Breed's Democratic challengers include Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie and Ahsha Safaí, who currently sits on the city Board of Supervisors. Former acting Mayor Mark Farrell could also jump into the race.

This will mark the first time San Francisco has held a mayoral contest during a presidential year, after residents voted to move city elections away from lower-turnout off years. It will also be a ranked-choice election, meaning it's difficult to predict how the race may shake out right now, as every public poll of the race so far has either been a head-to-head survey or was conducted more than six months ago. But what's certain is that Breed isn't getting a free pass from her fellow Democrats, who outnumber Republicans in the city nine to one.

Similar issues of housing shortages and a drug epidemic are expected to dominate the Portland, Oregon, mayoral election this year as well. Incumbent Mayor Ted Wheeler announced in September that he would not seek a third term, leaving the field wide open in a race that will see the city use ranked-choice voting for the first time. (While Oregon will be voting on whether to use ranked-choice voting in all statewide and federal elections this year, Portland voters already approved its use in local elections in 2022.)

So far, the only major declared candidates are first-term City Commissioners Mingus Mapps and Rene Gonzalez. Other candidates who are rumored to be eyeing runs include former Multnomah County Sheriff Mike Reese, City Commissioner Carmen Rubio and a few other city and county officials. Whoever wins will have less power than previous mayors to implement their agenda, though: As part of the reforms city voters passed in 2022, many mayoral powers were delegated to an appointed City Administrator or discarded altogether.

There are a few other mayoral elections to keep an eye on this cycle as well. In Miami-Dade County, incumbent Democratic Mayor Daniella Levine Cava will be battling against the region's recent rightward shift as many prominent local figures eye runs against her. Las Vegas voters will choose a successor to term-limited Mayor Carolyn Goodman, one of the few independent big-city mayors in the U.S. Other big cities like Phoenix, San Diego and Austin, Texas, will hold mayoral elections this year as well.

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While many of these races will be overshadowed by the flashier and newsier presidential race, they all could have big impacts on both federal and local policy. Changes at the state and local level often precede shifts in national priorities, leaving little doubt that these less-covered races might make waves far into the future.

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