Do the betting markets have 2024 right?

Plus, the wild cards that could throw a wrench in the 2024 election.

The 538 Politics podcast is kicking off the new year with a game of Buy, Sell, Hold. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year: Who will win the party nominations for president? Will a third party candidate break through? What will come of former president Donald Trump’s legal liability? And ultimately, who will win the White House, the House of Representatives and Senate? There are betting markets for just about all of these unknowns, so Galen asks the crew to make an assessment of the going odds.

They also discuss potential wildcards heading into the new year: What issues might motivate voters? How will congressional dysfunction play out? How about October surprises?