Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

We’ve been tracking 30 House races that we rated as “likely Democratic” based on our final forecast. ABC News has projected Democrats to win in around half of those races so far:

Among the seven races still yet to be projected, Democrats are also slightly ahead in all but two — but there are some in which we likely won’t know the results for days. California’s 13th Congressional District still has less than half of the expected vote reporting. And some are shaping up to be nail-biters: In Nevada’s 3rd and Maryland’s 6th, Democratic candidates are leading by less than a percentage point.

Unsurprisingly, the seats that were rated “lean Democratic” are even more up in the air. Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has been projected to win Michigan’s 8th congressional district, while Republican Rob. Bresnahan has been projected to defeat Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania’s 8th. Leads in the other 6 races are split evenly between Republicans and Democrats at the moment, but Republicans could very well pick up at least one more of these competitive seats:

With the presidential election and control of the Senate projected to go to Republicans, whether Republicans can keep or expand their hold on the House will have a big impact on whether Trump can enact much of his second term agenda, and these races will be critical in deciding that.

I'm still watching several Congressional races where women are competitive — that is, those that 538's forecast rated as "Toss-Up" or "Lean" Democratic or Republican. Just a couple of these races have been called so far, and women won both: In Michigan's 8th District, ABC News is projecting that Kristen McDonald Rivet, the Democrat, will win that open race, defeating Paul Junge. In Virginia's 2nd District, ABC News is projecting that Rep. Jen Kiggans, the Republican, will keep her seat for a second term; she was facing a female challenger, Missy Cotter Smasal.

Elsewhere, we are still waiting. As Alex just mentioned, Iowa's 1st District has not yet been projected, even with 99% of the expected vote reporting. But a woman will win either way in this close race.

Oregon's 5th is another matchup between two women. The Democrat, Janelle Bynum, leads Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer 48% to 45%, with 72% of the expected vote reporting.

A couple female Democratic incumbents are currently trailing: Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's 7th and Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska's at-large district. Female Democratic incumbents currently leading include Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington's 3rd, and Rep. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado's 8th. Republican incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel in California's 45th is currently leading with 63% of the expected vote reporting. But these are yet to be projected, so we are keeping an eye on them, and will update as we know more.

Republicans had been hoping to flip the three House seats held by Democrats in Nevada. Right now, it looks like all three Democratic incumbents are narrowly holding on, but the races are still unprojected. In the 3rd Congressional District, with 91% of the expected vote reporting, Rep. Susie Lee is nearly tied with her Republican challenger, Drew Johnson. She’s ahead by just 2,625 votes, or 0.8%.

Rep. Dina Titus, whose 1st District seat covers much of Las Vegas, is faring better with 51% of the vote compared to her challenger Mark Robertson’s 46%. And in the 4th District north of Las Vegas, Rep. Steven Horsford is leading against John Lee, 53% to 44%. In both those races, 86% of the expected vote is reporting.

The presidential race in the state is also yet to be projected, but with 93% of the expected vote reporting statewide, Trump is ahead of Harris 51% to 47%. Polls had shown that race locked in a tie heading into the election, and it could be that these congressional incumbents outperform Harris in the end.

Of the 435 House seats that were up for grab on Election Day, only five are considered true toss-ups. Of that number, two of the seats are in California (the 22nd and 45th Districts), one seat is in Iowa (the 1st District), one is in New York (the 19th District) and the final seat is in Washington (the 3rd District).

We might be waiting a little bit until all of these races are called — in California, for instance, just over half of the expected vote share is in. But what we know so far seems to suggest Republican victories in three seats, and Democratic wins in the remaining two. If these trends hold true, that would amount to just one flipped seat in Democrats' favor: in New York's 19th District. While ABC News has yet to project a winner, the Associated Press called the race for Democrat Josh Riley late Tuesday evening. The stakes here are high: The New York Times reported that there was roughly $45 million spent on this contest alone. If Riley holds on, his win would represent the second flip for Democrats in The Empire State. On Tuesday evening, state Senator John Mannion, a Democrat, defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the neighboring 22nd District.

In the remaining four toss-up races, it looks like the incumbent legislators will pull through — but only by a thread. In Iowa's 1st District, for instance, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Christina Bohannan, with a lead of less than 1,000 votes and 99% of the expected vote in. The second-closest race may be Washington's 3rd District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez currently leads her challenger, Joe Kent, by four percentage points.