Can Harris or Rosen still win Nevada?
Votes are still being counted in the presidential and Senate races in Nevada, and the odds of still being able to pull out a win are shaping up very differently for Harris and Sen. Jacky Rosen.
Harris is currently behind Trump in the statewide tally by 47% to 52%, with 93% of the expected vote reporting. That means that to win the state, Harris would need to win about 83% of the estimated 7% of votes left to be counted.
That's a tall order. That's especially true when you look at where the votes are coming from. Clark County, which comprises the Las Vegas metropolitan area, is the state's Democratic stronghold and where a majority of the state's voters live. Harris needed to win 69% of the vote there to match Biden's 2020 margin, and needed to win the county by 6.9% to win the state, according to our benchmarks. But with 95% of the expected vote reporting, her lead there is only 1 point, 50% to Trump's 49%. Most of the state's remaining votes are coming from nearby Nye County, which is only reporting 36% of the expected vote so far. Trump leads there 83% to 16%, and was always likely to win there. It makes up a smaller percentage of the state's overall population, but Trump is outperforming his benchmark margins there.
In the race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen and the Republican challenger, Sam Brown, about 12% of the expected vote is left to be reported. Rosen would need to win a little more than half, about 52%, of that vote to pull ahead of Brown's current half-point lead. In Clark County, Rosen's stronghold, 94% of the expected vote is reporting, but she is performing better than Harris.
But the Senate race is still close, and has yet to be projected.