Can Democrats win Arizona again tonight?
Polling in Arizona could hardly be closer. Trump leads Harris by a little over 2 percentage points in 538's final polling average of the state. That puts Arizona's polling about 3 points more Republican than the rest of the country.
Indeed, Arizona was a solidly Republican state until 2020, when it very narrowly gave its 11 electoral votes to Biden, who defeated Trump by just about 11,000 votes — a result that prompted attempts to challenge the outcome of the election. Since then, Arizona has become a hotbed for election denial, including by its 2024 Republican Senate candidate, Kari Lake, who made her name as a stalwart of the pro-Trump MAGA movement.
When it comes to demographics, nearly one in four voters in Arizona are Latino. According to a September Suffolk University/USA Today poll, nearly half of that group, 49%, are registered as Democrats, while around a quarter are registered as Republicans. Overall, Hispanic voters planned to vote for Harris over Trump 57% to 38%, even as the overall electorate in Arizona split the other way, with 43% favoring Harris and 52% favoring Trump. Another smaller but notable group in Arizona is Mormons, who make up 5% of the state's population. While they have historically voted Republican, many have moved away from Trump's rebrand of the party.
Like most of the country, Arizonans name inflation and the economy, immigration, and abortion as their top issues. Abortion and immigration may have special salience for voters this year, as they'll be deciding on ballot measures to tackle each of those issues.