Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

Polling in Arizona could hardly be closer. Trump leads Harris by a little over 2 percentage points in 538's final polling average of the state. That puts Arizona's polling about 3 points more Republican than the rest of the country.

Indeed, Arizona was a solidly Republican state until 2020, when it very narrowly gave its 11 electoral votes to Biden, who defeated Trump by just about 11,000 votes — a result that prompted attempts to challenge the outcome of the election. Since then, Arizona has become a hotbed for election denial, including by its 2024 Republican Senate candidate, Kari Lake, who made her name as a stalwart of the pro-Trump MAGA movement.

When it comes to demographics, nearly one in four voters in Arizona are Latino. According to a September Suffolk University/USA Today poll, nearly half of that group, 49%, are registered as Democrats, while around a quarter are registered as Republicans. Overall, Hispanic voters planned to vote for Harris over Trump 57% to 38%, even as the overall electorate in Arizona split the other way, with 43% favoring Harris and 52% favoring Trump. Another smaller but notable group in Arizona is Mormons, who make up 5% of the state's population. While they have historically voted Republican, many have moved away from Trump's rebrand of the party.

Like most of the country, Arizonans name inflation and the economy, immigration, and abortion as their top issues. Abortion and immigration may have special salience for voters this year, as they'll be deciding on ballot measures to tackle each of those issues.

This cycle, both Trump and Harris made appearances on several newer, unconventional media shows, reflecting a broader shift in political communication and raising questions about how democracy functions when potential voters receive information about the candidates from less traditional news sources.

The audience for the shows where Trump appeared, like the Nelk Brothers' Full Send Podcast, This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von, and The Joe Rogan Experience, skew male and right-leaning. For her part, the audiences for shows where Harris appeared are somewhat more mixed, though similarly targeted at demographics she may be stronger with. She spoke with Alex Cooper, host of Call Her Daddy, whose audience leans young and female, but also appeared on All the Smoke with hosts Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson, whose audience leans young, male and Black.

But as Americans' distrust of traditional mainstream media grows and their media habits shift, these unconventional platforms may be increasingly central to presidential campaigns' media strategies, and they may be decisive, electorally.

By appearing on platforms with highly specific demographics, campaigns may build direct rapport with targeted groups, but this also bypasses the broader public discourse traditionally facilitated by mainstream media. As media habits evolve, we're left to wonder: Will this shift enhance democratic participation or deepen polarization?

With all the attention on the presidential race, it's easy to lose track of key Senate and House races this cycle, not to mention important ballot measures. Don't worry — the 538 Politics podcast team is here to help with an election "road trip" (without even leaving the office!), and you're invited along for the ride.

Starting in New York, they previewed the state's competitive house races, before continuing south through Massachusetts, where psychedelics are on the ballot, and westward to Ohio, where the race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno could decide control of the Senate. They zig-zag across the country, hitting races and referendums from Louisiana all the way to California, before finally taking the ferry to Alaska to preview the race in the state's lone congressional district. You can listen to that podcast here.

U.S. elections frequently rhyme with elections elsewhere. When Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives won the UK's 1979 parliamentary elections, it presaged Republican Ronald Reagan's sweeping victory in the U.S. a year later. In 1992, Bill Clinton steered Democrats to the center en route to a win that put an end to a period of relative Republican dominance — a win that was echoed in Canada's 1993 elections (a major political realignment that returned the Liberals to power) as well as the UK's 1997 elections (which saw Tony Blair and "New Labour" win a landslide).

So as we're looking for clues about how today's elections are likely to turn out, it is helpful to look at recent trends in other democracies. And the broad theme, as Kaleigh Rogers pointed out in July, is that voters are angry and often taking it out on incumbent governments. That's bad news for Democrats, who hold the presidency (and the Senate) right now.

On July 4th, U.K. voters sent the Conservatives packing by handing Labour a tremendous 411 out of 650 seats, a Blair-esque victory. In Canada, the governing center-left Liberals are widely expected to lose the next election. The centrist Renaissance party of Emmanuel Macron gave up the country's prime ministerial post after losing seats in that country's parliamentary elections last summer. In an era of inflation and immigration, incumbent parties are struggling at the ballot box.

To be fair, the Conservatives in the U.K. and the Liberals in Canada had each been governing for nearly a decade or more, giving voter fatigue far more time to develop than it has here. But more recently elected governments are struggling, too. Germany's 2021 elections returned a government headed by Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party, a party which is now commonly third in election polling. The long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party in Japan just suffered an unexpected electoral setback in late-October elections. Even the newly elected Labour government in the U.K. has had a rocky start — its lead over the Conservatives has dwindled rapidly, especially if you take into account that many right-leaning voters now back the right-wing populist party Reform UK. It's a hard time to be an incumbent.

There is, though, at least one counter-example. As voters in the Republic of Ireland get ready for an election that may be later this month, the parties in government — and especially the party that currently leads the government, Fine Gael — have been doing surprisingly well in polls. One reason for their success may give Democrats cause for cheer: Earlier this year, they replaced their former leader Leo Vradkar.