Will the education divide continue to deepen?
One of the trends we are going to be watching after Election Day is how educational polarization might have intensified among the American electorate. The Republican Party currently holds a six-point lead over the Democratic Party in voter preference among registered voters without a college degree, while the Democrats have a 13-point advantage among those with at least a bachelor's degree, according to Pew Research. This is a marked reversal from dominant voting patterns not even 20 years ago, when Republicans were predominantly viewed as the party of the wealthy and Democrats the party of the working class.
This divide has fundamentally reshaped our politics in recent years. Think of the Republican Party's embrace of anti-expert views on topics like vaccination or climate change or the wider conflict over teaching about race and gender in schools. These culture war issues — which also stem from a growing diploma divide, where higher educational attainment is increasingly aligned with liberal political values — have changed what issues our political parties prioritize, how they operate and which voters they try to win.
Recently, the 538 Politics podcast interviewed Matt Grossman and David Hopkins, political scientists and authors of "Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics." To hear their takes on this trend, check out the podcast here.