Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

According to 538's final presidential forecast, Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes after all votes are counted today (or, in the case of a particularly tight race, over the next few days). We give Trump a 49-in-100 chance to win. Practically speaking those odds are roughly indistinguishable: You would have to flip a coin thousands of times to determine if it was slightly unfair, given a 49-in-100 chance of coming up heads or tails.

Statistically, too, a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance are practically indistinguishable when it comes to elections and polling. Due to the randomness in polling and changes in demographics and turnout from cycle to cycle, small changes in the settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 52-in-100, or even 55-in-100. These probabilities come from our subjective statistical assumptions about elections and polling that are correct on average over the long term, but can change in important ways in the short term.

That's all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability of its outcome. And, by and large, we have characterized the race as a toss-up since launching our forecast for the Harris versus Trump race in August.

Our forecast today is so close because the polls are close. According to our final polling averages, the margin between Trump and Harris is 2 percentage points or less in all seven swing states. But it is worth stressing that the polls will not be exactly correct. Polls overestimated Democrats by more than 2 points in both 2016 and 2020, for example, and our election model thinks the expected bias in polls this year is 3.8 percentage points on average, and could be more or less, favoring either party equally. When we did the math we found that polling error should be larger than 2 points favoring either candidate about 60% of the time.

You should not expect polls in presidential races to be perfectly accurate, in other words. You should expect them to be as imperfect as they have been historically. And in a race with very tenuous advantages for either party in each key state, that means there's a wide range of potential outcomes in the election. And that's why we've been saying the race isn't necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, are both a normal polling error away from an Electoral College blowout. If we shift the polls by 4 points toward Harris, she would win the election with 319 Electoral College votes. Meanwhile, Trump could win with 312 electoral votes if the polls underestimate him by 4 points instead.

Hopefully, this illustrates just how uncertain a 50-in-100 chance of winning the election really is. When we say the race for the White House is a toss-up and could go either way, we mean it.

Missouri is among the 10 states where abortion access propositions are on the ballot – and the Democratic candidate for governor says she’s confident Missourians are about to overturn the state’s strict ban on abortion.

"Abortion has been one of the number one topics of conversation in every place I've gone to all across the state," Democratic candidate for governor Crystal Quade, who currently serves as House minority leader in the state legislature, told ABC News on Monday. She added that she had heard about it even from self-identified Republicans who were impacted by the ban.

"Here in Missouri, we have one of the most drastic bans in the entire country … We are going to be overturning a ban," Quade said.

The campaign of Republican gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe did not respond to a request for an interview. He said at a debate in September, "[The amendment] goes way too far."

Mary Catherine Martin, Senior Counsel for the Thomas More Society and an attorney who argued in cases against the amendment, wrote in September, "We implore Missourians to research and study the text and effects of Amendment 3 before going to the voting booth."

Michigan gave Biden his highest margin of the three northern battleground states in 2020, but the race was still close, and it looks even tighter this year, with Harris only marginally ahead in 538's final forecast of the state.

Black and Arab Americans will play a key role in either candidate's victory. Polls have shown Black voters, who make up 13% of Michigan's electorate, swinging toward Republicans this year, though how big that shift will be remains to be determined. Michigan also has the largest share of Arab Americans in the country — a community that has been rocked by the wars in Israel, Gaza and Lebanon. Polling among the demographic — which makes up around 4% of the state's population — is limited, but the data we do have shows a major decline in support for Democrats following heavy protests over the Biden administration's response to the conflicts. Any loss of support for Democrats among these key groups could have major implications for which party ends up winning the state's 15 electoral votes.

There are also several key downballot races to watch in the Great Lakes State. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is favored to win the state's open U.S. Senate seat (currently held by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow) over former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin wins 76 in 100 times in 538's final forecast of the race — a clear advantage, but one that still leaves open the very real possibility of a Rogers win.

Michigan is playing host to multiple key U.S. House races too; the state's 7th, 8th and 10th districts are rated as competitive, though Democrats have an edge in the 7th, while Republicans are slightly favored in the 8th and 10th. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten has a comfortable lead in the 3rd District, though the race could still be competitive if the GOP is having a great night. The race for the state House is a nail-biter, though, with Democrats fighting to hold on to the narrow majority they won in 2022 and the state government trifecta they secured with that win two years ago.

Biden has been slammed by voters' pessimism over the economy since he took office. Some of that was the result of an economy scrambled by the COVID-19 pandemic, but Americans continued to feel negative about it even as some indicators picked up. A 538 analysis in June found that even which economic indicators voters cared most about were changed by the experience of the pandemic and the lockdowns and recession that came with it. While Biden was the presumptive nominee, Trump maintained a big advantage on the economy with voters.

When we spoke to voters about the economy in May, partnering with the nonpartisan research firm PerryUndem for two separate focus groups with Trump-leaning voters and Biden-leaning voters, the voters felt in general that the cost of living had been better four years ago. That was true for purchases as small as eggs at the grocery store, and as big as housing or college tuition. In general, Biden leaners planned to vote for the president despite the economy because they agreed with him on other issues or disliked Trump, while Trump-leaning voters were voting for him in large part because of the economy, naming proposals like his calls to drill for more domestic oil and to prioritize hiring American workers first.

So a big question for Harris' campaign is whether it's done enough to escape the economic albatross that Biden couldn't seem to shake. The economy remains a top issue for voters, but it does look like Harris is performing better than Biden did. Since entering the race in July, she has worked to reframe the issue around affordability, and championed policies like helping families by homes, and the New York Times/Sienna College poll from Oct. 20-23 found that Harris had cut Trump's lead on the issue to 6 points, compared to 13 points in early September.