Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

And now for the race that is decidedly not close: the race to control the Senate. Our model gives Republicans a 92-in-100 chance of winning control of the upper chamber, which includes scenarios in which they win 51 seats or more and scenarios in which they win 50 seats as well as the White House. (The vice president breaks ties in the Senate.)

Republicans' strength in our forecast comes from their expected wins in reliably red Montana and Ohio, where moderate Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off fierce competition from Republicans. In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester is trailing Republican Tim Sheehy by about 7 points in the 538 polling average. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown is polling 0.8 points behind Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. And our forecast gives the Democratic candidate in West Virginia, Glenn Elliott, less than a 1-in-100 chance of holding onto retiring Sen. Joe Manchin's seat.

If Democrats lose at least two of these seats, which our forecast reckons should happen about 95% of the time, they would need to pick up new senators from either Florida or Texas to hold onto their majority. They currently have a 16-in-100 chance of winning each. That is not negligible; to return to our classic examples, it's about the chance of rolling a standard six-sided dice and getting a one. But with Democratic candidates with no record of overperformance statewide and weak polling numbers, our model thinks the party has a fairly steep uphill climb in each.

One thing I'll be keeping an eye on as results start to come in is how the electoral votes are stacking up compared to the popular vote. In each of the past two elections, Trump lost the popular vote, but he lost the Electoral College only once. According to 538's final election forecast, we see a repeat of that split in around 21 in 100 simulations. For Harris, an Electoral College win with a popular vote loss is far less likely, with only a few simulations sitting in the top right quadrant of our Electoral College vs. popular vote scatter plot.

Either way, a split outcome could inspire calls to abolish the Electoral College — in a YouGov/The Economist poll last week, 54% of Americans agreed that the winner of the presidential election should be the candidate with the most votes nationwide, while only 28% said they would favor the current system.

With 538 electoral votes, the Electoral College does contain the possibility of a 269-to-269 tie. Could we run into this situation in the 2024 presidential race? It's possible, though pretty unlikely: According to 538's presidential forecast, there's only about a 1 in 450 chance neither Harris or Trump attain 270 electoral votes. Still, that's greater than zero, so let's look at how this could play out.

If Congress finds the absence of a majority when it gathers on Jan. 6, 2025, to certify the Electoral College results, the Constitution calls for the selection of our national executives via a "contingent election." In that scenario, the 12th Amendment commands the U.S. House of Representatives to "immediately" choose the president from no more than the three candidates who won the most electoral votes — so in a 269-269 tie, that would mean just the two major-party nominees. However, the choice is not based on a simple vote by the House's 435 members as a whole, but instead is decided through a unique system whereby each state casts one vote according to the preferences of each member of that state's House delegation — with states that have tied delegations potentially unable to cast a vote unless a member breaks with their party. To win, a candidate must win a majority of state delegations (26).

Under these rules, Trump would likely hold an edge in a contingent election for president. 538's House forecast shows a tight race for overall control of the House (which, of course, is based on which party controls more individual seats), but Republicans are far more likely than the Democrats to have an edge in the House delegations from at least 26 states in the next Congress. Currently, Republicans hold a majority of the House seats in 26 states compared with the Democrats' 22, while two others (Minnesota and North Carolina) are tied. Yet if we take 538's forecast and rate each state based on the race rating of its most competitive seat that would change party control, the GOP looks favored to control as many as 29 state delegations to Democrats' 20 come January, while Minnesota remains likely to have a tied delegation.

Meanwhile, the Senate would decide who fills the vice presidency if no vice presidential candidate earns a majority in the Electoral College. Unlike the House, a Senate contingent election vote would be based on a vote of the chamber as a whole, in which a candidate needs 51 of 100 votes to win. Additionally, the Senate can only consider the top two recipients of electoral votes, so even if a faithless elector casts a vote for another vice presidential candidate, the Senate would find itself picking between Vance and Walz.

The Senate math favors Republicans to win a contingent election for vice president, too, due to their 9-in-10 chance of capturing control of the upper chamber. Currently, Democrats hold a 51-to-49 majority, including the four independents who caucus with them. But Republicans are essentially guaranteed to pick up a Democratic-held seat in dark red West Virginia to get to 50-50. Next, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is an underdog to win reelection in Republican-leaning Montana, while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is in a toss-up race to keep hold of his Ohio seat. Democrats are also fighting to defend five seats in key presidential swing states Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which could also bear some fruit for the GOP. On top of this, Democrats have only a small chance of capturing GOP-held seats in states like Texas and Florida to make up ground elsewhere.

Compared to other issues (like the economy and immigration), education ranks lower as a priority for Americans. According to recent polls from The New York Time/Siena College and Emerson College, less than 2% of likely voters said it was their most important issue. But 92% of adults still said education was an important issue, while just 8% said it wasn't, in an October YouGov/The Economist poll.

Within education, a hot-button topic is school choice, specifically vouchers and educational savings account programs that direct government funding toward alternative and private education. Opponents fear these programs would take funding from public schools; supporters say they critically support parents' right to choose their kids' education.

National polls show that public opinion on the topic is mixed. In an October Noble Predictive Insights/Center Square poll, only 11% of registered voters ranked school choice as the top policy that would improve public education in America, coming in fourth among eight options, after focusing on core subject areas, increasing teacher pay and reducing classroom size.But according to a September Morning Consult/EdChoice poll, over 60% of adults supported school vouchers and ESA programs (although it's worth noting that EdChoice is an advocacy organization that supports voucher programs). A similar poll of only teachers showed a little less than half of them support the same programs.

In November, three states will vote on ballot measures related to school choice. In Nebraska, Referendum 435 will ask voters if they want to uphold or repeal Bill 1402, which sets aside $10 million annually to fully or partially pay for students to attend non-public schools. While an August poll from SurveyUSA/Split Ticket showed respondents to be divided, but largely undecided, on the ballot measure, an Emerson College/Midwest Newsroom poll last month showed almost two-thirds of registered voters are opposed to "using state taxpayer funds to help fund private schools," while only 29% are in favor.

In Colorado, Amendment 80 aims to enshrine a "right to school choice" in the state constitution, including language that opponents believe could lead to a voucher system. And in Kentucky, Amendment 2 asks whether public money should be allowed to go toward private schools. Similar to Colorado, opponents fear Amendment 2 could lay the foundation for a voucher program.

While there are no public polls of the ballot measures in Colorado and Kentucky, OpenSecrets has tracked fundraising by the committees that support and oppose them. In Kentucky, the vast majority of spending has been in support of expanding school choice, whereas in Colorado and Nebraska, those opposing school choice have far exceeded their opponents. Overall, across the three elections, committees against ballot measures to expand school choice have outraised supporters by over $1 million.

Meanwhile, Florida voters will weigh in on another education-related measure: Amendment 1 could make Florida's education system more partisan by requiring candidates for local school board to disclose their political party. Opponents of the amendment say it would bring politics into schools through partisan campaign contributions — although others argue that schools have been a political battleground for many years already. An average of the polls on Amendment 1 show that Floridians are divided on the issue, with 36% in favor of partisan school board elections, 37% in opposition and 27% undecided.