Will the loser of the presidential race get a consolation prize in 2026?
From taxes to abortion, from immigration to health care, the policy stakes for this presidential election are large. But there is a consolation prize that is likely to go to the party that loses this presidential election: control of the House of Representatives in two years' time.
Political scientists have documented that American electoral politics is subject to powerful, often predictable tides. And as I wrote back in 2016, midterm elections, and especially midterm elections for the U.S. House, offer a clear example of that. Particularly in an era of close margins in the House, whichever party loses the presidency today will become the immediate favorite to retake the House in the next election.
Dating all the way back to 1980, there has only been one presidential election in which the losing party didn't wind up in control of the House of Representatives after the subsequent midterm, regardless of whether they controlled the House at the start of their president's term. In the other 11 elections since then, the party that lost the White House either regained the House or held control in the subsequent midterm. Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden all saw their party lose control of the House in their first midterm election; Republican Donald Trump did in 2018 as well.
The only exception came in 2002, when 9/11 had reshaped the political landscape and helped Republicans gain seats in the House while George W. Bush was president. But even Bush was not immune from this pattern — in 2006, two years after his reelection, his Republicans lost control of both the House and the Senate.