Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

We won't know much until later, of course, but the vibe in Milwaukee has very much been one of mobilization, with Democrats in particular determined not to make the same perceived mistakes that the Clinton campaign made in 2016. Turnout in Milwaukee, a Democratic city with a large Black population, has been lower than in the rest of the state in recent elections. With a competitive Senate race and the polls very close in the presidential race, this has been a source of concern for Democrats. But it looks like there's been a lot of energy going into addressing this turnout gap.

Here's the anecdotal view from the ground as we wait for better data: I spent a little time in a coffee shop today, and I might have been the only one who wasn't out canvassing. One person (in a Harris shirt) went around the coffee shop to make sure everyone had voted. On Saturday, I heard reports that the northwest side of the city, a predominantly African American area, had been so thoroughly canvassed by early afternoon that the volunteers were sent home or to other areas. Friends working the polls in the city have suggested a lot of activity and new registrations.

I've been seeing some posts on X making the rounds that emphasize how Trump is performing somewhat worse in most of the 30 or so Indiana and Kentucky counties that have reported at least some of their vote tally. But not a single one of those counties has yet reported more than two-thirds of its expected vote, and many of those counties' tallies include a large percentage or at least some substantial number of absentee/mail-in ballots, which we know are somewhat more Democratic than votes cast on Election Day. We need more votes before we can say something more substantial about what's happening in these places.y

Here at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, turnout at the on-campus precincts is way up from 2020, and I know of at least a few students who skipped class to wait on the hour-long lines. But it's worth be cautious about how you interpret those results.

For one thing, the COVID-19 pandemic meant that there were far fewer students on campus four years ago, so it's hard to make direct comparisons. And we can't necessarily read these results as representative of the college-aged demographic: Fewer than half of 18- to 24-year-olds are enrolled in colleges, and some of those students live at home or off campus. So reports from campuses are important, but they don't tell us how young voters are reacting in general.

According to a recent analysis by Pew Research Center, there are 17 states that have never had a female Senator. After today's races are called, women could be elected to the Senate for the first time in Delaware, Indiana, Utah, New Mexico and Rhode Island. Of these women, Lisa Blunt Rochester, a Democrat in Delaware, is most favored, winning 98 in 100 simulations in our forecast. The other women running to be their state’s first senator are all longshots in their respective races, but include Democrats Valerie McCray in Indiana and Caroline Gleich in Utah, and two Republicans: Nella Domenici in New Mexico and Patricia Morgan in Rhode Island.

The US Senate currently stands at just 25% female representation.