All eyes on Mark Robinson — and his potential effect on a Trump win in North Carolina
As polls get ready to close in North Carolina, I wanted to bring attention to one of the biggest races on the ballot: the battle for the governorship, where the available evidence suggests that Republican Mark Robinson's chances of winning are slim as Democrat Josh Stein maintains a double-digit lead in the most surveys.
Robinson, the current lieutenant governor, has consistently trailed against Stein, but the distance between the two swelled after a September CNN report alleged that the Republican posted racist and transphobic messages on a porn forum more than a decade ago. The CNN report claims that, on one of the site's message boards, Robinson referred to himself as a "Black NAZI" and "perv," among many other degrading things. Robinson has denied that he wrote these posts, but he has a longstanding history of making disparaging comments. He once called the Holocaust "hogwash" and said that "transgenderism and homosexuality are "filth."
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in the Tar Heel State, Stein, the state's attorney general, has 56% support compared to Robinson's 38%. But a double-digit win of this magnitude would be historic in North Carolina. The last Democrat to win a gubernatorial race by this predicted margin was Governor Jim Hunt in 1980.
Of course, one of the biggest questions heading into tonight is whether Robinson will drag down Trump. But it doesn't look like that'll be the case. 538's forecast has Trump winning North Carolina 62 out of 100 times, which suggests that Robinson's political fallout might not affect Trump to any large degree. But even before the Robinson drama, the presidential race here was expected to be a tight one. Trump only won the state by one percentage point in 2020.
For whatever it's worth, Trump never rescinded his endorsement of Robinson, though he's distanced himself from the embattled Republican since this summer. And North Carolina's voters have a history of ticket splitting that could benefit Trump — even if it hurts Robinson: In 2000, for instance, Republican George W. Bush won the state with 56% of the vote. That same year, Democratic Governor Mike Easley was elected by an almost-similar margin.
