Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

It's always a big moment on election night when massive Miami-Dade County in Florida reports its first batch of votes — and it just did. With 70% of the expected vote counted in the county, Trump is at 55% and Harris is at 44%. If that holds, it would be another huge shift rightward for the heavily Hispanic county. It voted for Biden by 7 points in 2020.

As election nerds, it's easy to slip into horse-race language about how one county "helped this candidate come from behind" or "put that candidate over the top." It's important, though, to remember that there is no special meaning to the order in which votes are counted — even as we watch results pour in from Kentucky, this is not a horse race. In some cases, the order in which votes are cast is the result of deliberate policy decisions, such as Pennsylvania's policy of not pre-canvassing (or counting) mail-in ballots prior to Election Day. Watching election returns is more like watching a football game's highlights after they've been spliced into a random order — and without the scoreboard to guide us.

As polls get ready to close in North Carolina, I wanted to bring attention to one of the biggest races on the ballot: the battle for the governorship, where the available evidence suggests that Republican Mark Robinson's chances of winning are slim as Democrat Josh Stein maintains a double-digit lead in the most surveys.

Robinson, the current lieutenant governor, has consistently trailed against Stein, but the distance between the two swelled after a September CNN report alleged that the Republican posted racist and transphobic messages on a porn forum more than a decade ago. The CNN report claims that, on one of the site's message boards, Robinson referred to himself as a "Black NAZI" and "perv," among many other degrading things. Robinson has denied that he wrote these posts, but he has a longstanding history of making disparaging comments. He once called the Holocaust "hogwash" and said that "transgenderism and homosexuality are "filth."

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in the Tar Heel State, Stein, the state's attorney general, has 56% support compared to Robinson's 38%. But a double-digit win of this magnitude would be historic in North Carolina. The last Democrat to win a gubernatorial race by this predicted margin was Governor Jim Hunt in 1980.

Of course, one of the biggest questions heading into tonight is whether Robinson will drag down Trump. But it doesn't look like that'll be the case. 538's forecast has Trump winning North Carolina 62 out of 100 times, which suggests that Robinson's political fallout might not affect Trump to any large degree. But even before the Robinson drama, the presidential race here was expected to be a tight one. Trump only won the state by one percentage point in 2020.

For whatever it's worth, Trump never rescinded his endorsement of Robinson, though he's distanced himself from the embattled Republican since this summer. And North Carolina's voters have a history of ticket splitting that could benefit Trump — even if it hurts Robinson: In 2000, for instance, Republican George W. Bush won the state with 56% of the vote. That same year, Democratic Governor Mike Easley was elected by an almost-similar margin.

ABC News is also projecting that Republican Jim Banks will win the Senate race over Democrat Valerie McCray in Indiana. Banks is a Trump supporter who voted against certifying the 2020 election won by Biden, and Trump endorsed him in this race. Democrats haven't won a Senate race in the state since 2012.