What can Loudoun County tell us about Southeastern Pennsylvania?
Election observers are closely watching Loudoun County, a suburban and exurban county outside Washington, D.C. In 2020, Biden won 62% of its votes, but with more than 95% of the expected votes in, Harris has just 57%. That's probably not enough of a deficit to cost Harris Virginia, but what might it say about Pennsylvania's southeastern suburbs, where Harris will need to run up the score to win this keystone state in her Electoral College strategy? Looking at elections since 2000, I calculated how Loudoun's performance correlates with the so-called "collar counties" — the suburban counties that surround Philadelphia. It turns out that Loudoun has correlated very highly with the swings in Delaware County, which is just to the west of Philadelphia.