Election Day 2024 live results: Trump projected to win Pa., third swing state

ABC News is projecting that Trump will hold Iowa’s six electoral votes. The state became a topic of conversation over the last few days as the well-regarded pollster Selzer & Co. released a poll conducted on behalf of the Des Moines Register and Mediacom showing Harris ahead by 3 percentage points in the Hawkeye State, a surprising result for a state Trump won by 9 points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020. While Selzer has been known to publish outliers in the past that turned out to be more prescient than expected, it appears that this was not one of those times: Trump is ahead of Harris by 12 points in Iowa with 54% of the expected vote reporting.

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2024 Election: Donald Trump projected to win Iowa

Donald Trump will win Iowa, ABC News projects.

ABCNews.com

The AP currently has Harris leading with about 307,000 votes here in Philadelphia to Trump's 83,000 -- with about 56% of the expected vote in. With an estimated 306,000 expected vote remaining to be counted, that works out to an expected turnout of around 613,000 votes for either Harris or Trump. But in 2020, Joe Biden won 604,000 votes here to Trump's 133,000, for a total of around 737,000.

So Harris may be able to make up the deficits that Geoffrey wrote about earlier in places like Lackawanna (Scranton) if she can get more votes out of Philadelphia than Biden did. Given that the intensity of Democratic Get-Out-The-Vote operations here, especially relative to the COVID-19 election of 2020, that is certainly possible.

With polls closed, ABC News is projecting that Republican Josh Hawley has won reelection to the Senate in Missouri, and Republican Mike Kehoe will win the governor's race, succeeding the current Republican governor, Mike Parson, who is term-limited out. ABC News also projects that Sen. Pete Ricketts, who was appointed after former Sen. Ben Sasse resigned, will keep his seat and win his first election to the chamber.

We're still waiting on a projection in the Nebraska Senate race between Deb Fischer and Dan Osborn, but Nathaniel was right earlier: the independent is underperforming his benchmarks, and Fischer is still a favorite to win.

Ted Cruz looks like he's on his way to a third term in Washington, D.C. Polls ahead of tonight predicted a close, single-digit race in the Senate contest, where Cruz faced a challenge from Rep. Colin Allred. But the results we have now suggest a win will be more squarely in Cruz's lane: He currently leads Allred 54% to 44%, according to vote returns. Political prognosticators followed this race, in part, because Cruz only narrowly won his reelection bid in 2018, against former Rep. Beto O'Rourke. While Allred generated a lot of fanfare for out-raising O'Rourke, the evidence we have so far shows that Allred significantly underperformed him in key parts of the state, including Tarrant County, home to Fort Worth. While O'Rourke and Biden carried this county in 2018 and 2020, respectively, Cruz is currently winning the purple enclave this year by about 2 percentage points.