Election Day 2024 live results: Trump projected to win Pa., third swing state

Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, currently represented by Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, is rated as a toss-up in our forecast, but Miller-Meeks has had an edge throughout the campaign.

However, things appear to be coming down to the wire: with 90 percent of the expected vote reporting, Miller-Meeks is behind by two points, 49-51, to challenger Christina Bohannan, a former state representative who also ran against Miller-Meeks in 2022. Notably, Bohannan is running ahead of Harris in every single county in the district, and there’s very little vote outstanding in the counties that have reported so far. The bright spot for Miller-Meeks: Two Republican-leaning counties, Jasper and Washington, have yet to report any votes, and those two counties could net her just enough to make up the gap.

This has obviously been a rough night for Democrats so far, with a Sherrod Brown loss in Ohio and Senate hopes dashed in Texas and Florida. But the real contest for the presidency is just beginning, with one competitive state -- North Carolina -- projected for Trump, and the rest still being counted. Expectations that this would be a close race seem likely to be fulfilled, though it's possible that this will be the red wave that was anticipated in 2022.

ABC News projects that Harris will win Virginia's 13 electoral votes. With 86% of the expected vote reporting, she leads by not quite 5 points. However, that lead is half of what Biden carried the state by in 2020, part of her general underperformance of Biden across the country.

In 2008, Barack Obama picked up North Carolina's Electoral College votes, and with growth in Charlotte and the Research Triangle, it seemed like the state could be increasingly competitive. But in 2012, it was a rare bright spot for Republicans, and it has remained just outside the Democrats' reach since then, both in Senate and presidential races. Even as Democrats were gaining votes among newcomers to the state, they were shedding the support of the more ancestral Democrats who had put folks like John Edwards in the Senate.