The Blue Wall Democratic senators
From some back-of-the-envelope math, it looks to me that if The New York Times's projections about where the presidential races wind up, the Senate races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania--both of which feature Democratic incumbents--will be razor tight. At present, there is a 3.8 percentage point gap separating Trump and Harris in Pennsylvania, for example, but the Times projects a margin of 2.2 percentage points, meaning that the gap will close by 1.6 percentage points. What's the margin by which Republican Dave McCormick currently leads Democrat Bob Casey? 1.7 percentage points. Likewise, in Wisconsin, Eric Hovde's lead over Tammy Baldwin is 2.3 percentage points--and> the gap between Trump and Harris is projected to close by 1.2 percentage points. In Michigan, however, Democrat Elissa Slotkin's 3.6 percentage-point deficit right now is more than the 3.0 projected closing.