Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

In the presidential race, it’s 50% Trump to 49% Harris. Looking at the benchmarks tells us that while Trump is performing very well in some of the less-populated counties, Harris is able to hang on by hitting her benchmarks in Maricopa county, and slightly overperforming in Pima county. That being said, only about half of the vote has been counted, so there’s still plenty of time for a gap to appear — and given Trump’s performance in other swing states, it might not be in the Democrat’s favor.

Across the country, ballot measures to change how elections are run in various states seem to be running into hard times. Ballot measures in Colorado, Idaho, Arizona, South Dakota, Oregon and Montana that would either implement a ranked-choice voting system such as the one in Maine or an all-party primary such as in Alaska or California all appear to be on track to fail (only one such measure, in Washington, D.C., has passed so far).

In addition, Ohio's Issue 1, a ballot measure that would reform the way district lines are drawn in the state by implementing a nonpartisan commission to draw lines (rather than leaving the maps in the hands of the legislature), is also projected to fail. Potentially confusing ballot wording may have impacted voters' decision on the measure.

Moreover, eight states featured ballot measures that would restrict local municipalities from allowing noncitizens to vote in local elections, which is permitted in some more liberal cities like San Francisco. Every one of those measures is on track to pass, including one in Missouri that would also ban municipalities in the state from implementing ranked-choice voting for local races.

It's now 1 a.m. Eastern, which means all polling places have closed in Alaska. And with that, polls are closed across the nation! Here are our forecasts for the races in the Last Frontier:

Pennsylvania is the largest of the key swing states in this election, with 19 electoral college votes. With Georgia and North Carolina projected for Trump, Harris has no straightforward back-up for Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes — she cannot make up for them by winning Arizona and Nevada, for example.

In Pennsylvania, her current deficit is 2.8 percentage points, with more than 6.2 million votes in for major-party candidates. To be sure, in 2020, 6.8 million votes were cast for the major-party candidates, but with a relatively uniform shift across the state — sorry, commonwealth — Harris will need a sizable blue shift and some considerable breaks to catch up here in Pennsylvania.