49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election

The next leader of the free world isn't the only thing being decided on Tuesday. Voters in 41 states will take policymaking into their own hands as they decide the fate of 146 ballot measures on topics as diverse as abortion rights, election laws, workers' rights and even drug legalization. Since it takes time for politicians to take office and make laws, these ballot measures will, in many cases, be the first tangible impact that Americans feel from the 2024 election.

With so much else on the ballot, though, it's hard to keep track of 146 different measures, so we've narrowed the list down to what you really need to know. Without further ado, here are the 49 most consequential, competitive and/or just plain interesting ballot measures of 2024.

Abortion

Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, the fight over abortion rights has turned to the states — and in many cases, abortion-rights advocates' most effective weapon has been ballot initiatives. Since the ruling, there have been seven statewide ballot measure elections concerning abortion rights, and the pro-abortion-rights side has won every one.

That record will be put to the test on Tuesday, when 10 or 11 such measures (depending on your definition) will be decided. The most consequential of these are in Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota — five states where abortions are currently either banned or significantly restricted. Abortion-rights advocates in these states collected enough signatures to force a vote on whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions, which would effectively overturn those bans and restrictions.

According to an average of polls with a median field date of Sept. 25 or later,* Proposition 139 in Arizona has a healthy lead and seems likely to pass. However, Amendment 3 in Missouri, Initiative 439 in Nebraska and Constitutional Amendment G in South Dakota are polling within the margin of error. In addition, Amendment 4 in Florida leads by an average margin of 57 percent to 34 percent, but constitutional amendments in Florida require 60 percent to pass, so that one is up in the air too.

There's also a catch in Nebraska: There is another proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot, Initiative 434, that would ban abortion after the first trimester (with exceptions for rape, incest and medical emergencies). The only recent survey to ask about this proposal found it also leading, 46 percent to 41 percent. If both Nebraska initiatives pass, the one that receives more votes would take precedence.

Colorado, Maryland, Montana and Nevada will also vote on state constitutional amendments to guarantee abortion rights; however, these measures would have less of an immediate impact because abortion is already generally available in those states. Still, they're not entirely symbolic. For instance, Colorado's Amendment 79 would also repeal the state's ban on the use of public funding for abortion. And in Montana, abortion is protected only because of a 1999 decision by the state Supreme Court; Constitutional Initiative 128 would serve as a failsafe in case the court overturns that precedent.

Polls suggest that these proposals are all on track to pass easily — even in Colorado, where constitutional amendments require 55 percent of the vote to pass. However, Nevada requires constitutional amendments to pass in two consecutive general elections, so its proposal would have to pass again in 2026 in order to take effect.

Finally, New York will also vote on Proposal 1, which expands the New York State Constitution's equal-protection clause to include "sex, including sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy." Supporters argue that this would also guarantee the right to abortion, but the wording of the amendment is vaguer than in other states. Either way, Proposal 1 seems likely to pass; it led 69 percent to 22 percent in an October poll from Siena College.

Elections

It hasn't gotten much attention, but eight states (plus Washington, D.C.) could dramatically change how they decide elections this year. Proposition 131 in Colorado and Proposition 1 in Idaho would establish a new electoral system in which all candidates, regardless of party, run in one primary and the top four finishers advance to a ranked-choice general election. (Under ranked-choice voting, voters rank the candidates in order of preference; the candidate with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to their voters' second choices, and so on until one candidate has a majority.) There haven't been any recent polls of Idaho's initiative, but a recent YouGov/University of Colorado poll found Proposition 131 leading 46 percent to 31 percent, and supporters have raised more money than opponents in both states.

Question 3 in Nevada would implement a similar system, but with the top five primary finishers advancing. A September poll from Noble Predictive Insights found Question 3 leading, 43 percent to 30 percent, but with 20 percent undecided. The same amendment already passed in 2022, 53 percent to 47 percent, so it would officially become law with a "yes" vote this year.

Other states are considering similar reforms, but their implementation would be less straightforward. In Montana, Constitutional Initiative 126 would require top-four primaries, while Constitutional Initiative 127 would require candidates to receive a majority in order to win — but it wouldn't prescribe ranked-choice voting. Instead, it would be up to the state legislature to decide what system to use, which could lead to a messy debate between ranked-choice voting and a more traditional runoff system.

And in Arizona, Proposition 140 would require an all-party primary and a ranked-choice general election — but it's silent on how many people would advance from the primary. That, too, would be up to the legislature. Complicating matters is Proposition 133, a competing measure that would ban all-party primaries and enshrine partisan primaries in the state constitution. Like in Nebraska, if both measures in Arizona pass, the one with more votes would win out. Despite the wealth of polling in Arizona, only one survey has asked about one of these measures: an October poll from Data Orbital sponsored by the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, which opposes Prop 140. The poll found 42 percent of Arizonans in support of all-party primaries and 41 percent opposed.

Elsewhere, Alaska is the one state that already uses a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election, but Ballot Measure 2 would take it back to partisan primaries and a "first past the post" general election. An October poll from Alaska Survey Research found the state evenly divided on it, 50 percent to 50 percent.

We're not done yet: If Constitutional Amendment H passes in South Dakota, the Mount Rushmore State would switch to a top-two primary system like California and Washington have, in which all candidates, regardless of party, run in the same primary and only the top two finishers advance. However, two polls from October found it failing by an average margin of 52 percent to 40 percent. Meanwhile, Initiative 83 in Washington, D.C., and Measure 117 in Oregon wouldn't bar partisan primaries but would institute ranked-choice voting. We weren't able to find any polls of the former, while an October poll from Public Policy Polling and the Northwest Progressive Institute (which supports ranked-choice voting) found a tight race for the latter.

There are also a couple of ballot measures that wouldn't redesign their state's electoral system but could nevertheless have a big impact on its elections. Connecticut will vote on a state constitutional amendment to allow people to vote absentee without an excuse. A September poll from MassINC Polling Group and the CT Mirror found it narrowly leading, 49 percent to 40 percent.

And in Ohio, Issue 1 would create an independent commission to draw the state's congressional and state legislative districts and require them to reflect the partisan balance of the state. Such commissions have succeeded at drawing fair maps in other states and are generally pretty popular, so it was little surprise when a Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll in mid-October found Issue 1 leading by more than 20 percentage points.

But a late-October survey from Miami University found a very different result: 46 percent support and 45 percent opposition among registered voters. That could be because, unlike Bowling Green State, Miami University used question wording partially lifted from the way it will appear on the ballot: "How do you intend to vote on Issue 1, a constitutional amendment to create an appointed redistricting commission not elected by or subject to removal by the voters of the state?"

That unflattering ballot language was written by Ohio's Republican secretary of state, along with a longer ballot description that says Issue 1 would "repeal constitutional protections against gerrymandering approved by nearly three-quarters of Ohio electors" (a weaker redistricting commission approved via ballot measure in 2015) and "establish a new taxpayer-funded commission of appointees required to gerrymander the boundaries of state legislative and congressional districts" (a reference to the partisan-fairness requirement). This could persuade voters who support fair districts to vote against the amendment; there have already been anecdotal reports of voters intending to vote for Issue 1 but getting confused by the ballot language in the voting booth and voting against it instead.

Finally, eight states (Iowa, Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Wisconsin) will also vote on ballot measures that would prohibit noncitizens from voting. However, this is already illegal at the federal level, and although 19 cities nationwide allow noncitizens to vote in local elections, none of them are in these eight states. Critics have alleged that conservatives only put these measures on the ballot to amplify unfounded fears about noncitizens voting illegally or as "ballot candy" — a popular provision added to a more controversial ballot measure to make it easier to pass. For example, Amendment 7 in Missouri bans both noncitizen voting and ranked-choice voting (which is not currently used anywhere in Missouri).

Workers' rights

Usually, increasing the minimum wage is a guaranteed winner at the ballot box. Since 1998, states have considered 24 ballot measures to increase the minimum wage; all 24 have passed. However, that record will be put to the test this year in three different states.

Proposition 32 in California would raise the minimum wage there to $18 per hour, which would be the highest in the country. Two different polls in October disagreed over whether the measure was winning by 8 points or losing by 10.

Meanwhile, Ballot Measure 1 in Alaska and Proposition A in Missouri would both raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour and require employers to provide paid sick leave. There are no recent polls of either measure, but in both states, supporters have raised millions of dollars and there is no significant campaign against the measures.

A third state is considering whether to require paid sick leave, too: Nebraska, via Initiative 436. Unfortunately, we haven't seen a poll of the initiative for months. However, the committee pushing paid sick leave has raised $3.2 million, while no committee has organized in opposition. If all three states vote in favor of these measures, it would increase the number of states mandating paid sick leave to 17 (plus Washington, D.C.).

Drugs

Recreational marijuana is already legal in 24 states and Washington, D.C., and on Tuesday, Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota could join them. In fact, Florida's Amendment 3 is one of the most expensive ballot-measure campaigns in the nation: Supporters, led by the medical cannabis company Trulieve, have donated $101 million to the race, while opponents have given $23 million — and that doesn't count millions of dollars that Gov. Ron DeSantis has spent on taxpayer-funded public service announcements warning about the dangers of marijuana. Polls since Oct. 1 have averaged 61 percent support and 36 percent opposition, just over the 60 percent support it needs to pass.

And this is actually the third time that North and South Dakota will vote on marijuana legalization. In North Dakota, it failed 59 percent to 41 percent in 2018 and 55 percent to 45 percent in 2022; this year, however, a September poll from WPA Intelligence/North Dakota News Cooperative found Initiated Measure 5 passing, 45 percent to 40 percent. In South Dakota, voters actually legalized marijuana, 54 percent to 46 percent, in 2020 but it was struck down in court; in 2022, a second attempt failed, 53 percent to 47 percent. This year, two October polls show Initiated Measure 29 failing by an average margin of 51 percent to 45 percent.

Massachusetts has already legalized pot but could go further in this election: Question 4 would make Massachusetts just the third state to legalize psychedelics. An average of polls since Oct. 1 suggests the measure is slightly ahead, 47 percent to 42 percent.

Finally, Proposition 36 in California would increase penalties for drug possession and low-level theft, repealing parts of a 2014 ballot measure that reclassified these felonies as misdemeanors in an effort to reduce incarceration. That 2014 measure passed, 60 percent to 40 percent, but an average of three recent polls indicates that Prop 36 is on track to win in a landslide, 66 percent to 26 percent. If so, it would be the latest manifestation of liberal areas embracing "tough on crime" policies in reaction to rising crime and homelessness rates.

Other topics

A conservative backlash over immigration and the border could also tip Arizona's Proposition 314 over the edge. This referendum would make it a state crime to cross the border illegally and allow state authorities to arrest and deport people who do so. According to an average of two September and October polls, the measure leads, 62 percent to 27 percent.

Education is on the ballot, too. Kentucky's Amendment 2 would allow public money to go toward private schools, and Colorado's Amendment 80 would add a "right to school choice" to the state constitution. Referendum 435 in Nebraska will also ask voters if they want to repeal a new law that sets aside $10 million a year for school vouchers. And Florida's Amendment 1 would make school board elections in the Sunshine State partisan.

Housing costs are a big issue across the country, but especially in California, which will once again vote on whether to lift restrictions on rent control, a policy in some cities that limits how much landlords can raise rents by each year. Proposition 33 would allow cities to enact rent control on single-family houses, on apartments built after 1995 and for new tenants, none of which are currently allowed. A massive amount of money has been spent on this measure, with opponents outraising supporters, $125 million to $50 million, and it seems to be working: An average of three October polls puts Prop 33 in the hole, 49 percent to 36 percent.

Since the Supreme Court allowed states to legalize sports betting in 2018, 38 states and Washington, D.C., have done so — and Missouri could join them if it passes Amendment 2 on Tuesday. The amendment would use tax revenue from the bets to fund public education, although there's some question over how much money schools would actually see. The most recent poll of this measure is from September and found it passing, 52 percent to 25 percent.

Finally, with Question 5, Maine voters will decide whether to replace their current state flag, which features the state seal on a blue background, with a new design based on the "Lone Pine Flag," which was Maine's original state flag and remains a common motif on souvenirs and clothes in the state. Vexillologically, it's an easy call — state seals on flags are frowned upon — but Question 5 has turned into much more than a debate over aesthetics. The state seal has a farmer and a sailor on it, and many Maine conservatives feel that removing it would add insult to injury for the state's beleaguered agricultural and fishing industries. Accordingly, Question 5 is flagging in the polls: A SurveyUSA/Bangor Daily News/FairVote poll found just 33 percent support and 52 percent opposition.

Footnotes

*If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the narrowest available sample (i.e., likely voters over registered voters and registered voters over adults). If a pollster released more than one survey during this time frame, we included only the most recent.