Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Tough night for progressives

Nathaniel, I can imagine a few factors played into how the Georgia state Supreme Court race is playing out. For one thing, state Supreme Court races are usually sleep affairs in Georgia, and control of the court wasn't up for grabs. But it's pretty clear that turnout was pretty low across the state, even for a primary. In the 2022 midterms, about 1.9 million people cast votes in the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senate; so far tonight, around 667,000 votes have been counted, which per the AP is 56 percent of the expected vote. So there might be about two-thirds as many voters in this race than in the 2022 primaries in Georgia.

It also looks like turnout in the Atlanta area was especially low, with great consequences for the liberal/Democratic candidate. For instance, about half the vote is in from Fulton County, one of the bluest in the state, and Barrow only leads there by 6 points compared with Biden's 46-point edge there in 2020.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Since the Dobbs decision, abortion has galvanized Democrats and liberals to victory in several races: There were the 2022 midterms; there was the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election; there was the ballot measure to codify abortion rights in the Ohio constitution last November.

But in Georgia today, the pro-abortion-rights message appears to have fallen flat; Pinson is beating Barrow 56 percent to 44 percent with about half of the vote counted. Why do you guys think that is?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Tonight, Kaleigh's been updating us on state legislative races in Georgia. There's a misconception that female representation is markedly better in lower level offices, like state legislatures. It's a bit better, but not much. Women currently make up 28 percent of the U.S. Congress, and just 33 percent of state legislatures, nationwide. That number varies state to state, and some states we're watching today are below that average, while others are above: Idaho's state legislature is 30 percent women, Kentucky's 31 percent, Georgia's 35 percent, and Oregon's 41 percent (!), according to the Center for American Women and Politics.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Monica mentioned earlier that anti-abortion candidates in Georgia Republican primaries are doing fairly well, and I can't say I'm surprised. In an April survey by Morning Consult/Bloomberg, 70 percent of Georgia voters said that abortion would be "very important" or "somewhat important" to their vote for U.S. president, a bit less than the 76 percent of swing state voters overall. But when asked which presidential candidate they trust more to handle the issue of abortion, 41 percent said Biden and 37 percent said Trump, a narrower gap than we've seen in national polling that tends to favor Biden.

And of course, in a Republican primary the issue may be even less salient in the state. Just 37 percent of Republican voters in the state told the pollsters that the issue was very important, compared to 61 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of independents.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538