Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


That’s a wrap!

With all of tonight's key races now projected, it's time for us to hit the hay. Here's a recap of who won today:

- Despite trying to ride the wave of voter activation over abortion, former Democratic Rep. John Barrow failed to unseat Republican-appointed Justice Andrew Pinson in the only contested race for Georgia Supreme Court today.

- Challenges to a pair of major figures in Trump's Georgia election-interference case also went nowhere. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis easily won her Democratic primary, and Judge Scott McAfee won his judicial election against a self-described "conservative Democrat."

- The Republican primary in Georgia's 3rd District is going to a June 18 runoff between longtime Trump staffer Brian Jack and former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan.

- In Georgia's 13th District, incumbent Rep. David Scott prevailed over his six challengers to win his Democratic primary and will go on to seek reelection in November. Scott's challengers tried to focus on his age and health as an issue, echoing criticisms facing the Democrats and President Joe Biden in November, but incumbency proved too powerful an advantage.

- Out west, the DCCC got their candidate in Oregon's 5th District, as state Rep. Janelle Bynum easily dispatched attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost in 2022 in this seat against Republican Rep Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Bynum will face off against Chavez-DeRemer this November.

- In Oregon's 3rd District, state Rep. Maxine Dexter benefited from a plethora of outside spending to defeat former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal in the Democratic primary, all-but-ensuring that Dexter will be this dark-blue seat's next representative.

- Republican Mike Erickson will get a third shot at winning a House seat as he cruised to victory in the GOP primary for Oregon's 6th District. At times, Erickson seems more focused on winning a defamation case against Rep. Andrea Salinas regarding an ad she aired last cycle against him than he does on beating her in an election.

- In Idaho's 2nd District, incumbent Republican Mike Simpson is poised to win his primary and likely reelection this fall. With more than 60 percent of the votes counted, he leads his closest challenger, investment adviser Scott Cleveland, 57 percent to 34 percent. (Scott Cleveland is a great quarterback name, now that this politics thing doesn't seem to be working out.)

- In the special election in California's 20th District (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's old seat), Assemblyman Vince Fong defeated fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux. As a result, Speaker Mike Johnson will soon get an extra vote in the House.

—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley, 538; Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Simpson prevails in Idaho

The AP is now projecting that Simpson has won the Republican nomination in Idaho's 2nd District. The story of Simpson's career is that he has been moderate enough to arouse significant discontent in primaries, but not enough discontent to make him lose. This time around, he's pulling 57 percent of the vote.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Anchorage, Alaska, has ousted its conservative mayor

This election actually happened last week, but the outcome just became official today: Suzanne LaFrance has defeated incumbent Dave Bronson in the election for mayor of Anchorage, Alaska. Bronson belonged to a right-wing faction of city politics, while LaFrance aligned herself with Democrats. LaFrance is also the first woman elected mayor of Anchorage.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538



Greater Idaho grows?

Elsewhere in Oregon, Crook County is poised to become the 13th county to vote to secede from the state and join Idaho. These ballot initiatives are non-binding advisory votes, but a large swath of the sparsely-populated eastern part of the state has voted in favor of secession since 2020.

—Irena Li, 538


Democratic women we’re watching

According to the Center for American Women and Politics, in primaries that have been decided through May 8, 41 percent of Democrats' U.S. House nominees thus far are women, compared to just 14 percent of Republicans'. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women in this cycle than Republicans, thus far.

We are watching several Democratic women today who are looking to add to those numbers, including a couple of primaries in Oregon where multiple female candidates are facing off in races that have drawn contentious outside spending.

In Oregon's 5th District, two women — state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner — are running to face the one-term incumbent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in the general. Chavez-DeRemer, one of just 34 Republican women in the House, won election in 2022 by defeating McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points. In 2022, with support from progressive groups like Our Revolution and Indivisible, McLeod-Skinner successfully mounted a progressive challenge to defeat a seven-term incumbent (Kurt Schrader) before losing to Chavez-DeRemer. In today's primary, McLeod-Skinner doesn't have endorsements from Our Revolution or Indivisible, but she is endorsed by many local groups, and a few sitting members of Congress, while Bynum is endorsed by EMILYs List, plus Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. No matter who wins, November's general election will be a rematch. Bynum defeated Chavez-DeRemer in state house races in 2016 and 2018. This district will play a crucial role in the Republicans' attempts to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House.

In Oregon's deep-blue 3rd District, several women are competing for the nomination to replace longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer, who is not seeking reelection. In this crowded primary, two progressive women look to be the leading candidates — state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Jayapal's sister is Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Democratic congresswoman from Washington, and member of The Squad. EMILYs List has not endorsed in this race.

Elsewhere in the state, EMILYs List has endorsed two Oregon incumbents — Rep. Val Hoyle in the 4th District and Rep. Andrea Salinas in the 6th. In 2022, Hoyle won her general election by about 7 points, and Salinas won hers by less than 3 points. Both are seen as targets for Republicans aiming to pick up seats this fall.

In Georgia's safely blue 6th District, recently redrawn due to redistricting, the Democrats' entire field is women: Rep. Lucy McBath (who currently represents the 7th District), state Rep. Mandisha Thomas and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. And in the 13th, Rep. David Scott, who is 78 and also just saw his district redrawn, faces a host of challengers, two of whom are women — Uloma Kama, a physician, and Karen Rene, an attorney.

Finally, in Idaho's 1st District, Kaylee Peterson is running unopposed to face Rep. Russ Fulcher in this deep-red district in November, as she did in 2022. And in Kentucky, Erin Marshall is running unopposed in the 1st District, which is also a safely red seat and therefore an unlikely pickup for Democrats. I've written before that Republicans are more likely to nominate women as sacrificial lambs (which is a candidate who runs unopposed in a primary for a losing November seat to give members of their party a choice in the race), but Democrats do it, too! A Democratic woman (Shauna Rudd) is also running in Kentucky's 6th District against four men. This is also a safely red seat.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor