Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Tough night for progressives

Coming into today, we were tracking 31 people of color running for Congress in today’s primaries — 27 Democrats and four Republicans. With much of Georgia and Kentucky’s results in, we know the electoral fates of more than two-thirds of those contenders.

In Georgia, five incumbent Black Democrats all won renomination, including McBath, who cruised in the redrawn 6th District despite not previously representing any of this turf in her current district (the old 7th District). Scott didn’t have it as easy in the new 13th District, of which he only represents about one-third of right now, but he won the Democratic primary with 59 percent of the vote against a crowded field of challengers. Flowers, perhaps the most noteworthy of Scott’s opponents, finished in third with 10 percent. Democratic Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson and Nikema Williams were all unopposed in their primaries.

Two other Black candidates have been projected as winners in Democratic primaries in solidly red Georgia seats. In the 8th District, Darrius Butler won his primary but will be a clear underdog against Republican Rep. Austin Scott. The same is true in the 12th District for Liz Johnson, who has to face GOP Rep. Rick Allen in November. On the GOP side, Latino contender Jonathan Chavez won the right to face Scott in the 13th District, which will almost certainly vote Democratic in November. And in the 4th District, Eugene Yu was unopposed for the GOP nomination; he’ll be a huge underdog against Johnson in the general election.

The remaining candidates of color with a shot at winning today are in Oregon, where we won’t have results for a while to come.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Per Idaho Public Television’s live blog of today’s primary, even though polls are now closed in most of the Gem State, no results will be released until polls are closed statewide at 11 p.m. Eastern.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Here's something to do while waiting on those results ...

When it comes to winning elections, is it really, "the economy, stupid?" Are "soccer moms" the quintessential swing voter? And does it matter which candidate you'd rather share a beer with? Every election cycle, cliches come easy. But are they right?

That's what we try to get to the bottom of in our new mini-series on the 538 Politics podcast, "Campaign Throwback." In the first installment we interrogate the role that the economy plays in electoral outcomes, in the second we ask how suburban women came to be viewed as swing voters and whether that is the case today. In our final installment, which will come out tomorrow morning, we look at the "beer question." Starting in the 2000s, pollsters and pundits began speculating that voters are drawn to the candidate they'd rather have a beer with. We go back and look at the data to try to determine if that's actually how Americans choose their presidents.

So while you wait for that last set of polls to close, take some time to catch up on the latest "Campaign Throwback" episodes in the podcast feed, and tune back in tomorrow morning for our final installment!

—Galen Druke, 538

Perhaps the most interesting elections today in Idaho — where the first polls have just closed — are for the obscure position of precinct committeeman for the local GOP. As Monica has written, many state Republican parties are at war with themselves, and that’s the case in Idaho as well: Two traditionalist GOP groups, North Idaho Republicans and Gem State Conservatives, are trying to win as many precinct committeemen posts as possible in order to wrest control away from the party’s right wing, some of whom have ties to white nationalists.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538