Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate wins Ohio primary

In Ohio’s 6th District, Michael Rulli is projected to defeat Reggie Stoltzfus in the Republican primary, according to ABC News. Rulli currently leads by about 9 percentage points in the regularly scheduled primary and 8 points in the special election primary to succeed Rep. Bill Johnson, with over 80 percent of the expected vote reporting in each. Because the district is solidly Republican, Rulli will likely be the next member of Congress. A special election in a few months will send him to D.C., where he’ll fill out the remainder of Johnson’s term.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

And Geoff, it only cost Taylor $1.7 million. Not a bad deal given how much some other self-funders have spent just to come up short. (David Trone dropping $13 million to lose my home district, MD-08, in 2016 comes to mind.)

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As I noted in the opener for our live blog today, the polls in Ohio's Senate race showed a "close race" between Moreno and Dolan, with LaRose in a somewhat distant third. The result, however, is anything but close. With 85 percent of the expected vote reporting, Moreno currently has a lead of 17 points, making for an 18-point miss in our polling average (after you account for some rounding). This is not the largest miss in Senate primary polling history — that honor belongs to surveys of the 2018 Republican primary for a special Senate election in Mississippi — but it is nevertheless very large. An 18-point miss is about 2 times the size of the expected miss of primary polls in historical Senate races (8.2 points).

This miss is notable because it's actually larger than historical expectations. That's the opposite of what we've been seeing with presidential primary polls — which, while they have systematically overestimated support for Trump this cycle, have at least been more accurate than the historical average presidential primary survey. Pollsters will need to do some work to figure out what went wrong.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

In Ohio's 12th District Republican primary, David Taylor is projected to win, according to ABC News. With more than 90 percent of the expected vote reporting, Taylor has 25 percent of the vote, putting just ahead of Tim O’Hara (21 percent) and Larry Kidd (19 percent) in a crowded 11-candidate contest. Considering this is solidly red turf, Taylor is all but certain to be the next representative from this suburban-exurban Cincinnati area seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538