Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: May 7, 2024, 5:01 PM EDT

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
May 07, 2024, 9:42 PM EDT

Final thought: Tonight’s primaries show where the party is headed in deep-red states

Braun was the front-runner in the Republican gubernatorial primary tonight, and he ended up winning. But the candidates weren’t that different on many of the issues. As other observers noted, the primary was fought more over big national issues like crime, China, immigration and abortion than over the day-to-day running of the state. The way the race unfolded tells us a lot about the direction of the Republican Party nationally, and the candidates we can expect deep-red states like Indiana to send to Washington. Among other things, that’s meant that the party continues to run conservative anti-abortion candidates despite the position being unpopular, and an often losing one, for Republicans in general.

—Monica Potts, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
May 07, 2024, 9:40 PM EDT

Any final thoughts?

With most of today’s primaries now projected, we’re going to sign off soon. But first: What were everyone’s takeaways from the night?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
May 07, 2024, 9:39 PM EDT

The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd

While ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in the tight race for the GOP nomination in Indiana’s 3rd District, the AP has made a call: They are saying that Stutzman will be the winner. That would make the 3rd District today’s only win for the insurgent wing of the Republican Party: Stutzman was an OG tea partier who helped force out former Speaker John Boehner in 2014.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
May 07, 2024, 9:38 PM EDT

Checking in on anti-abortion candidates

Shreve’s projected win in the 6th Congressional District is another win for anti-abortion candidates. Shreve’s website describes him as a pro-life Catholic who would work to protect the unborn. That said, he sang a different tune when he ran for Indianapolis mayor last year, saying that mayors aren’t charged with making abortion policy. Of course, Indianapolis is much more Democratic than the rest of this solid red state, and Shreve will have a chance to weigh in on national abortion policy if he is sent to Congress in November. His win means that Republicans could be sending at least five anti-abortion representatives to the House next year, in addition to Banks, their likely new senator.

—Monica Potts, 538