Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.
The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.
Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
With 83 percent of the vote reporting, DeSantis is starting to put some distance between himself (21 percent) and Haley (19 percent). According to The New York Times’s Needle, which uses precinct results to forecast who will win (or in this place, finish second), DeSantis now has a greater than 95 percent chance of finishing second.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
It’s looking increasingly like Trump win not only dominate statewide, but will also win every single one of Iowa’s 99 counties. That might not be a traditional “Full Grassley,” of which DeSantis did one and Ramaswamy did two(!), but it’s a testament to Trump's strength as a candidate, and perhaps the decreasing importance of traditional retail politics.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
In 2016, Trump finished a close second in Iowa with 24 percent of the vote, trailing Cruz's 28 percent. But since then, Trump has won over much of the very conservative and more religious voter base that backed Cruz while holding onto the more populist parts of the party. Understandably then, we see a fair bit of alignment with tonight's vote and how Trump and Cruz performed combined at the county level in 2016. Based on 27 counties where we have at last 85 percent of the expected vote, there's a fairly strong correlation of 0.72 between Trump's vote tonight and the Trump+Cruz 2016 caucus showing.
Correlation isn't causation, but we can see in the preliminary entrance poll data how Trump has captured much of the Cruz wing of the GOP. Among voters who identified as "very conservative," who made up half of the electorate, Trump won 60 percent. In 2016, Cruz won 44 percent of the vote among very conservative voters in a more crowded race, while Trump only won 21 percent.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
With 53 percent of the estimated vote reporting, Trump is currently at 53 percent, DeSantis at 22 percent, Haley at 20 percent and Ramaswamy at 8 percent. Those results could still shift, but so far, they are very close to the final polls. Our final polling average of Iowa was Trump 53 percent, Haley 19 percent, DeSantis 17 percent and Ramaswamy 6 percent.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
