Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 15, 2024, 5:15 PM EST

The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.

Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
Jan 15, 2024, 11:36 PM EST

Haley is making history for Republican women

Our friends over at The 19th have pointed out that Haley is likely to become the first woman to win more than one delegate in the Republican primary. If she pulls off an upset in New Hampshire later this month, she'll become the first woman to win a Republican primary contest. In that same state, then-former Sen. Hillary Clinton was the first woman to ever win a major party primary contest in 2008, when she captured a surprise victory after coming in third in Iowa, which Obama won.

Republican presidential hopeful and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event at the Olympic Theatre in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Jan. 11, 2024.
Christian Monterrosa/AFP via Getty Images

—Monica Potts, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jan 15, 2024, 11:35 PM EST

DeSantis gives a victory speech after losing Iowa

DeSantis just finished his caucus-night speech, and it sounded a lot like a victory speech. He told a raucous crowd that, despite everyone underestimating their campaign, they punched their ticket out of Iowa. Of course, DeSantis did not win the state, and his 30-point deficit to Trump raises serious questions about the future viability of his campaign. There was a lot of positive spin up on that stage.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Julia Azari Image
ByJulia Azari
Jan 15, 2024, 11:34 PM EST

DeSantis gets serious about GOP history

I admit that I did not expect to hear a Gettysburg Address quote tonight, but DeSantis said it twice, and mentioned Lincoln and Gettysburg — and Reagan and the Cold War — outright.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

Geoffrey Skelley Image
ByGeoffrey Skelley
Jan 15, 2024, 11:33 PM EST

Ramaswamy's departure adds more good news to Trump's night

Ramaswamy wasn't polling that well in New Hampshire — around 5 percent — but his supporters are a Trumpy group, which means a substantial number of them will move to the former president. Based on limited sample sizes, around one-third to half of Ramaswamy's voters in national and New Hampshire polls named Trump as their leading second choice. With Trump polling at 43 percent in our New Hampshire average, this might move him up a couple notches, and make it just a little harder than it already was for Haley to catch him (she's at 30 percent). Now, Haley could gain support in the next wave of polls because most surveys in New Hampshire haven't accounted for Christie's departure yet, and we know Haley is the top second choice for Christie voters. But she's set to finish third in Iowa and perhaps not get quite the glut of positive headlines a second-place showing might've produced. Overall, beating Trump was already a difficult challenge, so Ramaswamy boosting him a little more stands to make it even harder.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538