Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 15, 2024, 8:59 PM EST

The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.

Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
ByGeoffrey Skelley
Jan 15, 2024, 8:32 PM EST

Trump projected to win Iowa

ABC News projects that Trump will win the Iowa Republican caucuses. This surprises absolutely no one, given that Trump had a more than 30-point lead in 538's Iowa polling average heading into tonight's event. However, the drama tonight wasn't about Trump's outcome, but second place: Can Haley jump ahead of DeSantis and set herself up for a nice result ahead of New Hampshire's primary, where she's stronger? Or will DeSantis pull off a comeback story of sorts by grabbing the silver medal? Stay tuned!

ABC News projects Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus based on entrance polling after Trump had a nearly 30-point polling lead heading into the caucus.
ABC News projects Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus based on entrance polling after Trump had a nearly 30-point polling lead heading into the caucus.

ByJulia Azari
Jan 15, 2024, 8:38 PM EST

Responding to Nathaniel's question

Who will benefit from cold-induced low turnout? I'm not actually sure. Trump seems like the simplest answer. There are a couple of ways to think about this — it seems intuitive that the cold could be more of a deterrent for older voters, but I don't know that there's much evidence for that. The other consideration is whether one of the candidates is more dependent on low-propensity voters — those with less consistent voting histories. Historically, these voters have been Trump's bread and butter.

ByMonica Potts
Jan 15, 2024, 8:35 PM EST

Answering Nathaniel

Trump might benefit from low turnout, but I've also been thinking about Trump's support from first-time caucusgoers. Will they stick with it and show up? He's also traditionally relied on support in rural areas, and I wonder if there will be travel concerns on unplowed back roads. At the same time, he has the enthusiasm, as others have noted.

ByJacob Rubashkin
Jan 15, 2024, 8:32 PM EST

Answering Nathaniel

I agree that Trump is probably the beneficiary of the extreme cold given how devoted his supporters are, but I wonder also if Haley will disproportionately lose out. There’s been a lot of reporting about how she’s been attracting some support from independents and even Democrats. If you’re a Democrat trying to make a Haley bank shot, I feel like you’re probably less likely to venture out in this weather than someone with a greater connection and obligation to the Republican Party. It’s probably a small slice of potential caucus-goers, but it could make a difference.