Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

In West Virginia's 2nd District, five Republicans are vying to succeed Mooney tonight, but one has almost all of the institutional support. State Treasurer Riley Moore has been endorsed by both establishment Republicans (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce) and tea partiers (Mooney, Americans for Prosperity) alike. And yes, he is also one of those Moores — Shelley Moore Capito is his aunt. He's the leading fundraiser in the race with $883,000 in contributions and is the strong favorite to win the primary, although retired Air Force Brigadier General Chris Walker has raised a competitive $732,000 as well.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

As usual, tonight we'll be tracking candidates in Maryland's, Nebraska's and West Virginia's Senate, House and gubernatorial primaries whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights.

Abortion has been illegal in West Virginia since a pre-Roe ban went back into effect after the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization in 2022. Nevertheless, several anti-abortion candidates are running in both the state's open Senate and gubernatorial races. Both Republican primary candidates in the 1st Congressional District are also anti-abortion, as are four of the five in the 2nd Congressional District. Republicans are favored to win all these races in the fall.

In Nebraska, seven candidates are on our list, including incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts and all three of the state's House members. The Cornhusker State currently bans abortion after 12 weeks of pregnancy. A bill that would have banned abortion after six weeks died in the legislature last year, and there's an effort to put an abortion rights initiative on the ballot this year. Polling shows most voters in the state oppose more abortion restrictions, as is true of voters nationwide.

And in Maryland, Rep. Andy Harris and five of the seven Republicans running in the open 6th District are anti-abortion. Maryland is the most supportive state for abortion rights of the places we're watching tonight, allowing abortion throughout pregnancy, but these two congressional districts are the most conservative in the state: The 1st is solidly red, while the 6th is a toss-up.

—Monica Potts, 538

With Justice term-limited out of the West Virginia governor's office, the open-seat Republican primary features members of three old West Virginia political families: former state Del. Moore Capito, the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito; car dealer Chris Miller, the son of Rep. Carol Miller; and Secretary of State Mac Warner, whose father and brother were both state legislators. However, the front-runner is a relative newcomer to the state: Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (whose first campaign was for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District in 2000).

Trump has not endorsed in this race, but (so?) the candidates have been tripping over each other to prove they are the most pro-Trump — and, in a state that recently banned gender-affirming care, the most anti-transgender. For example, a pro-Morrisey PAC has hammered Miller for "pro-transgender events" (its language for drag shows and a free clothing closet for transgender students) at Marshall University, where Miller served on the board of governors until last year. Meanwhile, supporters of Miller have hit back at Morrisey for being a lobbyist for a "drug company that helps turn boys into girls" in an ad that also unsubtly pokes fun at Morrisey's height and weight.

Thanks to his ability to self-fund, Miller has spent twice as much money as Morrisey, $6.2 million to $3.1 million. However, polls indicate it hasn't done that much to boost his support. Instead, it is Capito who looks like he poses the biggest threat to Morrisey: Since April 1, he has risen from 16 percent to 26 percent in 538's polling average of the race, within striking distance of Morrisey at 33 percent. (Miller is at 20 percent, and Warner is at 12 percent.) Capito recently received the endorsement of Justice himself, and if he wins, would likely govern in the incumbent's back-slapping, deal-making style; the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity-endorsed Morrisey, though, is more of a hardliner.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

When Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced he was retiring in November, West Virginia's U.S. Senate seat became an almost automatic Republican pickup — and the GOP primary became the only game in town. But what was once expected to be a firecracker of a fight between Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney has fizzled. Trump endorsed Justice in October, and the anti-establishment Club for Growth has not come through with the $10 million it originally planned to spend for Mooney, who is aligned with the far-right obstructionist wing of the GOP. As a result, Justice leads Mooney 60 percent to 26 percent in 538's average of primary polls of the race.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538