Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

One inescapable topic in the Democratic primary for Maryland Senate is Trone's largely self-funded campaign. As of April 24, he had pulled in a whopping $54.9 million, with all but $817,000 coming from his own pocket. Between then and May 6, Trone loaned his campaign another $7.7 million, bringing his fundraising total to over $60 million.

With resources like that, you might expect Trone to be significantly outpacing Alsobrooks in the polls, but that's not the case. Trone only leads the 538 polling average by 2 percentage points, and two recent polls showed Trone trailing Alsobrooks for the first time.

To understand why, let's look a little closer at both candidates' fundraising numbers. Despite Trone's overall fundraising lead, Alsobrooks actually outraised Trone $6.6 million to $795,000 in individual and committee contributions, showing a deeper level of support from both regular donors and various PACs. So while much of the narrative about this race is focused on the size of Trone's bank account, let's not forget that money isn't the only thing you need to win an election.

—Amina Brown, 538

Maryland open-seat Senate race has produced an expensive and increasingly negative Democratic primary between Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobooks and Rep. David Trone. The two contenders are a study in contrasts. Trone, who is white, made millions as co-founder of Total Wine & More, which has enabled him to spend nearly $62 million out of his pocket in his Senate bid, as of May 6. Alsobrooks, who is Black, leads the most populous majority-Black county in the country, which sits to the east of the nation's capital. Her campaign had raised $7.8 million as of April 24 with no self-funding.

But despite this shortfall, Alsobrooks has nearly caught up to Trone in the polls: She trails him just 41 percent to 38 percent in 538's average, making for a highly uncertain contest tonight.

Trone has argued that he's a better bet to win the general election than Alsobrooks against former Gov. Larry Hogan, the likely GOP nominee, while she has played up her strong backing from most of Maryland's high-profile Democrats — including the state's other senator, Chris Van Hollen — and her support for abortion rights.

But race has been an unavoidable subject in this contest, too. Trone has emphasized his support from Black officeholders, including an ad in which one official said the Senate is "not a place for training wheels." That line drew a rebuke from a group of Black women for being "disparaging and dismissive" and tinged with "misogyny and racism." Trone also raised ire in March when he used a racial slur during a hearing, saying later that he meant to say "bugaboo." Alsobrooks, who'd be Maryland's first Black senator, has highlighted how her background — unlike Trone's — differs from the mostly white and male makeup of the Senate. More broadly, the Democratic primary electorate will be almost evenly divided between white and Black voters, and Maryland's 2006 and 2016 Democratic primaries for open Senate seats each split voters along racial lines to a notable extent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

According to a May survey from Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar, a whopping 54 percent of West Virginia GOP primary voters say that the "economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" is the most important issue facing the state. The second-most chosen issue was education at 11 percent, followed by "coal/energy" at 9 percent. No other single issue was selected by more than 5 percent of the electorate.

I've been tracking issue priorities in each state as the primaries have progressed, and this is the largest number of voters of either party I've seen so far who have selected the economy as the most important issue facing their state. It's also unusual that GOP primary voters in West Virginia aren't as concerned about immigration as those in other states: Just 4 percent said immigration was the most important issue. This is despite the fact that, in the same survey, 83 percent of GOP primary voters said they thought that "the number of migrants seeking sanctuary in the United States is a crisis," while 13 percent said it is "a problem but not a crisis." Only 4 percent said it is "not a problem at all."

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

If you're looking for a dark horse race that could prove very interesting, keep an eye on the Republican primary for West Virginia's 1st District. Incumbent Carol Miller is running here and hasn't done anything to upset the GOP base, but she is facing a robust challenge from former state Del. Derrick Evans. Evans is no ordinary former state legislator, though. He served all of 40 days in office, from Dec. 1, 2020, to Jan. 9, 2021, when he resigned three days after entering the U.S. Capitol as part of the pro-Trump mob attempting to stop certification of the 2020 election. He pleaded guilty to a felony civil disorder charge and served three months in jail, but he is now singing a different tune for his GOP primary campaign, defending the Jan. 6 insurrection and condemning his prosecution.

And Evans may have a serious shot. Bolstered by the endorsements of far-right Rep. Bob Good and Trump allies like pillow salesman Mike Lindell and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, he has raised almost as much money as Miller: $982,000 to $783,000. There's no public polling in this race, but Miller appears to be looking over her shoulder. She recently started airing negative ads against Evans, attacking him for being, of all things, too liberal.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538