Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 47 people of color are running in these contests — 36 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Almost all of the candidates (44) are running in Maryland, which is one of the most racially and ethnically diverse states in the country.

The marquee Maryland race involving a candidate of color is, of course, the Democratic primary for Senate. If Alsobrooks makes it through both the primary and general election, she will be only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate — although she may be tied for that distinction with Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is a strong favorite to win in Delaware.

Down the Maryland ballot, a number of candidates are running in the solidly blue 3rd District. In the Democratic primary, former Capitol Hill police officer Harry Dunn, who is Black, has been a fundraising machine but finds himself in a tight contest in against state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, who is white. State Sen. Clarence Lam, who is of East Asian descent, may have an outside shot of catching Dunn and/or Elfreth, while three other legislators of color — Dels. Mark Chang, Terri Hill and Mike Rogers — look unlikely to break through. On the GOP side, retired Air Force officer Berney Flowers, who is Black, has raised a bit more than his primary opponents, although the Republican nominee will have virtually no chance here.

In the blue-leaning 6th District, state Del. Joe Vogel, a Latino, is locked in a close race with former Commerce Department official April McCalin Delaney. A third contender, Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez, who is Black, has raised a sizable amount of campaign cash, too. In the mix in the Republican primary are Air Force veteran Mariela Roca, who is Latina, and former Del. Brenda Thiam, who was the first Black female Republican to ever sit in the Maryland legislature. However, this crowded race could go in a lot of directions.

Elsewhere, in the solidly blue 2nd District, Del. Harry Bhandari, a Nepali immigrant, looks like a significant underdog in the Democratic primary against Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski. The GOP favorite in that seat may be Kim Klacik, a Black woman whose failed 2020 campaign in the solidly Democratic 7th District raised millions after Trump retweeted her campaign ad. She has raised far less this time around, and whomever Republicans nominate will be a huge underdog in November.

In the dark-blue 5th District, health care executive Quincy Bareebe, a Ugandan immigrant, has loaned her campaign more than $200,000 in her long-shot primary challenge to longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer. On the Republican side, Charles County GOP chair Michelle Talkington, who is half Black and half white, has no opposition in her primary. Reps. Glenn Ivey and Kweisi Mfume, both Black incumbents, should easily win renomination in their safe blue seats.

Outside Maryland, state Sen. Tony Vargas, who is Latino, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination in Nebraska's highly competitive 2nd District. And in Nebraska's special election for Senate, community advocate Preston Love Jr., who is Black, is also unopposed but will stand little chance in the general election. In West Virginia's dark-red 2nd District, Walker, who is Black, has raised a lot of money in the Republican primary but, as Nathaniel wrote earlier, looks like an underdog against Moore.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

One inescapable topic in the Democratic primary for Maryland Senate is Trone's largely self-funded campaign. As of April 24, he had pulled in a whopping $54.9 million, with all but $817,000 coming from his own pocket. Between then and May 6, Trone loaned his campaign another $7.7 million, bringing his fundraising total to over $60 million.

With resources like that, you might expect Trone to be significantly outpacing Alsobrooks in the polls, but that's not the case. Trone only leads the 538 polling average by 2 percentage points, and two recent polls showed Trone trailing Alsobrooks for the first time.

To understand why, let's look a little closer at both candidates' fundraising numbers. Despite Trone's overall fundraising lead, Alsobrooks actually outraised Trone $6.6 million to $795,000 in individual and committee contributions, showing a deeper level of support from both regular donors and various PACs. So while much of the narrative about this race is focused on the size of Trone's bank account, let's not forget that money isn't the only thing you need to win an election.

—Amina Brown, 538

Maryland open-seat Senate race has produced an expensive and increasingly negative Democratic primary between Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobooks and Rep. David Trone. The two contenders are a study in contrasts. Trone, who is white, made millions as co-founder of Total Wine & More, which has enabled him to spend nearly $62 million out of his pocket in his Senate bid, as of May 6. Alsobrooks, who is Black, leads the most populous majority-Black county in the country, which sits to the east of the nation's capital. Her campaign had raised $7.8 million as of April 24 with no self-funding.

But despite this shortfall, Alsobrooks has nearly caught up to Trone in the polls: She trails him just 41 percent to 38 percent in 538's average, making for a highly uncertain contest tonight.

Trone has argued that he's a better bet to win the general election than Alsobrooks against former Gov. Larry Hogan, the likely GOP nominee, while she has played up her strong backing from most of Maryland's high-profile Democrats — including the state's other senator, Chris Van Hollen — and her support for abortion rights.

But race has been an unavoidable subject in this contest, too. Trone has emphasized his support from Black officeholders, including an ad in which one official said the Senate is "not a place for training wheels." That line drew a rebuke from a group of Black women for being "disparaging and dismissive" and tinged with "misogyny and racism." Trone also raised ire in March when he used a racial slur during a hearing, saying later that he meant to say "bugaboo." Alsobrooks, who'd be Maryland's first Black senator, has highlighted how her background — unlike Trone's — differs from the mostly white and male makeup of the Senate. More broadly, the Democratic primary electorate will be almost evenly divided between white and Black voters, and Maryland's 2006 and 2016 Democratic primaries for open Senate seats each split voters along racial lines to a notable extent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

According to a May survey from Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar, a whopping 54 percent of West Virginia GOP primary voters say that the "economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" is the most important issue facing the state. The second-most chosen issue was education at 11 percent, followed by "coal/energy" at 9 percent. No other single issue was selected by more than 5 percent of the electorate.

I've been tracking issue priorities in each state as the primaries have progressed, and this is the largest number of voters of either party I've seen so far who have selected the economy as the most important issue facing their state. It's also unusual that GOP primary voters in West Virginia aren't as concerned about immigration as those in other states: Just 4 percent said immigration was the most important issue. This is despite the fact that, in the same survey, 83 percent of GOP primary voters said they thought that "the number of migrants seeking sanctuary in the United States is a crisis," while 13 percent said it is "a problem but not a crisis." Only 4 percent said it is "not a problem at all."

—Mary Radcliffe, 538