Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

Nathaniel, here's where I think the Trone electability argument ultimately fell short. This guy spent $62 million blanketing the state with positive advertising nonstop from September until today. If voters were going to respond to what he was offering, they would have done so already. The fact that by the end he was performing pretty similarly to Alsobrooks in head-to-head matchups against Hogan, and that his image was actually worse than Alsobrooks statewide, suggests to me that his money wouldn't have done him all that many favors in the general election. I still think he would have won, but only because I think any Democrat with a pulse and a decent voting record can win a Senate race in Maryland.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

The Democratic primary for Maryland Senate has focused heavily on electability, with Trone arguing that Democrats should nominate him because he’ll have an easier time beating Hogan in the fall, whereas nominating Alsobrooks would risk giving Republicans a pickup opportunity. However, I’m skeptical that Hogan really has a shot in a state as blue as Maryland, no matter who Democrats nominate. What do you guys think?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

With 41 percent of the expected vote reporting, Alsobrooks now leads Trone 53 percent to 43 percent, and we're starting to see projections for her from some outlets, such as the Associated Press. Probably the biggest sign of Alsobrooks's edge is that she's leading outright in places beyond the majority- or plurality-Black localities of Prince George's County (her home base), Baltimore City and Charles County.

In the last two open-seat Senate races in Maryland in 2006 and 2016, the Democratic primary featured one major Black candidate and one major white contender, and in each race the Black aspirant only carried those three places. But this time around, Alsobrooks is ahead in Baltimore County and running basically even with Trone in his home base of Montgomery County. All of this adds up to a lead that looks likely to hold up at this point.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

At Alsobrooks’s HQ, a senior campaign adviser just interrupted appetizers and light dancing to announce that while the race hasn’t been called, they were “outperforming” their expectations for the night.

ABC has not projected Alsobrooks's victory, but is reporting her leading over Trone by 8 points. Connor Lounsbury, the adviser, said that the campaign was seeing particular improvements in Alsobrooks’s performance when comparing her vote-by-mail and and Election Day numbers.

Lounsbury also said that Alsobrooks was outperforming, by their estimations, in Montgomery and Baltimore Counties — pivotal places for the candidate.

—Isabella Murray, ABC News