Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

Dunn's fundraising and national profile always made him look like the frontrunner in Maryland's 3rd, but Elfreth ran strong from the beginning, and the scant polling of the race we had showed her even with Dunn or ahead of him, before, during and after the UDP spending push (which, as Geoff noted, allowed the pro-Elfreth voice to be louder on TV than the pro-Dunn voice). And Elfreth's team was confident heading into today. I spoke with one of her allies this morning who was blunt in their assessment of the state of the race: "Elfreth will win it. She had TV plus organizing." Sometimes, it's that simple!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Meredith, the race seemed very close in a way that made it hard to project just who would win. It's true that Dunn raised a very large amount of money and definitely had a lot of traction online. But Elfreth raised a fair bit herself and actually represents part of the district in the Maryland state legislature, whereas Dunn didn't have an initial base of support as he hails from outside the seat in Montgomery County. Most critically, Elfreth received ample outside support from United Democracy Project, the AIPAC-associated super PAC. So while Dunn had raised $4.6 million to Elfreth's $1.5 million, UDP spent $4.2 million in support of Elfreth while Dunn had no outside help. To be clear, a candidate's campaign dollar goes farther when booking ads than for outside groups, but as Jacob pointed out in late April, the combined broadcast ad time bought by Elfreth and UDP sometimes outdistanced Dunn during the campaign.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Democrats' 22-person race in Maryland's 3rd District came down to two candidates (as expected). With 55 percent of the expected vote reporting, ABC News reports that Elfreth is the projected winner, and she leads Dunn 36 percent to 25 percent.

Question for the group: Is anyone surprised by Elfreth's win? I am a bit surprised, given Dunn's celebrity status.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

We've been tracking how people of color are performing in primaries throughout this cycle, and there were 47 on the ballot tonight, 44 of whom were running in Maryland. Overall, seven are projected to win, of which Alsobrooks is probably the most notable.

Alsobrooks could make history as the third Black woman to ever win election to the Senate, though she could share that honor with Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is favored to win Delaware's open Senate seat. Elsewhere in Maryland, two Black Democratic incumbents, Ivey and Mfume, also won renomination. Klacik, whom Meredith discussed, won the GOP nomination in Maryland's 2nd District, but will be a huge underdog in November. It's a similar story for Talkington in Maryland's 5th District. In Nebraska, meanwhile, Vargas was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and will face Bacon in the state's purple 2nd District this November. And in one of Nebraska's Senate races, Love Jr. was unopposed and will very likely lose against Ricketts in the solidly red state. Beyond those individuals, it's unlikely that any other candidates on the list will win a primary tonight.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538