Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: May 14, 2024, 5:59 PM EDT

Tuesday, May 14 was another busy primary day, as voters in three states decided who would be on their general election ballots this fall. In Maryland, Democrats nominated women in two safely Democratic congressional seats, including Angela Alsobrooks, who is poised to become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. In West Virginia and Nebraska, incumbent Republican representatives fended off far-right challengers.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Jacob Rubashkin Image
May 14, 2024, 11:14 PM EDT

Final thought: TV advertising and diminishing marginal returns

Money can buy you a lot of things, but it's not all-powerful. Trone found that out the hard way tonight when he hit a ceiling of about 42 percent of the vote (with 61 percent of the expected vote reporting), despite spending untold millions. If Trone had spent $30 million less, I'm not sure he would have done all that much worse. If he had spent $60 million less, he probably wouldn't have registered at all.

It was obvious that money was a big part of victories elsewhere in the state and country. In Maryland's 3rd District, Elfreth was able to ride a wave of outside support to a comfortable but tough projected win over Dunn — without that money, I'm not sure she would have succeeded. And the third-place finisher, Lam, was not coincidentally the only other candidate to go on TV. In Maryland's 6th District, the only two Democrats with money to go on TV were also the ones to place in double digits, Delaney and Vogel, and the bigger spender won more votes. And in West Virginia's 2nd District and Nebraska's 2nd District, big spending by incumbent GOP representatives and their outside allies ultimately staved off underfunded challenges from right-wing opponents.

Anyway, my biggest takeaway is that Maryland has something to offer for everyone! And our flag is the best in the nation. With that: Good night.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Meredith Conroy Image
May 14, 2024, 11:11 PM EDT

Final thought: A good night for Democratic women

Although the table here suggests a lot of Democratic women lost tonight, that's because a lot of Democratic women ran. But Democrats nominated women in a number of places that will be competitive or safe in November, like Maryland's Senate race, and in Maryland's 3rd and 6th Districts. As I mentioned earlier on the blog, as of May 8, 41 percent of Democratic nominees are women, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. Tonight will likely boost that number.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Geoffrey Skelley Image
May 14, 2024, 11:10 PM EDT

Final thought: Trone didn't break the self-funding record for a Senate race

Trone ended up spending just about $62 million out of his own pocket in Maryland's Democratic primary for Senate, but it wasn't enough for him to defeat Alsobrooks. It also left Trone just short of the all-time record for self-funding in a Senate race. In 2018, now-Sen. Rick Scott spent more than $63 million of his personal wealth on his successful campaign. (He's up for reelection this year.) But to put that in perspective, Scott spent that amount over the course of the whole cycle, whereas Trone shelled out nearly the same total for just the primary!

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Monica Potts Image
May 14, 2024, 11:09 PM EDT

Final thought: Incumbents are powerful

My main final thought for the night is that we've seen once again how powerful incumbency can be. Incumbents won against far-right challengers in primaries throughout the states. In the race I was watching, West Virginia's 1st, there was very little daylight between the two Republican candidates, Miller and Evans. Both were extremely loyal to Trump and the MAGA agenda, but Evans's candidacy largely hinged on him being more loyal to Trump than his opponent because he actually protested on Jan. 6, while Miller had avoided angering the base by voting against certifying the election. As we race toward an election that appears to be a 2020 rematch, the same 2020 spirit pervades many downballot races as well.

—Monica Potts, 538