Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

According to the Center for American Women in Politics, in states where filing deadlines have passed as of April 26, 36 percent of Democratic candidates for House races and 32 percent for Senate races are women. Today in Maryland, the share is a little lower: 32 percent of Democrats running for House and two out of 10 Senate candidates are women.

That said, women are competitive in a couple of Maryland's most critical primaries — which happen to be pretty crowded. A slew of Democratic departures — in the 2nd, 3rd and 6th Congressional Districts, as well as the Senate — have contributed to a wave of hopeful nominees, including Elfreth in the 3rd District and Alsobrooks for Senate. EMILY's List, the Democratic powerhouse that supports women at the crucial primary stage, has put its muscle behind Alsobrooks with a $2 million ad buy. But, despite typically investing in pro-choice women running in competitive districts, the group hasn't made an endorsement in Elfreth's race.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, there are no Democratic women on the ballot today, while in Nebraska, there is just one running: state Sen. Carol Blood is running unopposed in the 1st District. If the incumbent Republican, Rep. Mike Flood, wins his primary, it will be Blood versus Flood, a most ominous general election match-up. But she will likely lose this, ahem, blood-red district in November.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Biden would've carried Maryland's 6th District by only about 10 percentage points in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections are former state delegates: Neil Parrott, who lost to Trone in 2020 and 2022, and Dan Cox, who lost as the GOP nominee in Maryland's 2022 gubernatorial contest. Parrott has raised $271,000, while Cox has only brought in $123,000. But Cox may be buoyed by his indefatigable support for Trump's unfounded claims that Biden's 2020 victory was illegitimate — a view that around two-thirds of Republicans still subscribe to nationally.

Four other candidates may also have a shot here. Former Naval fighter pilot Tom Royals leads the field in fundraising with $521,000, Air Force veteran Mariela Roca has brought in $274,000 and retired state trooper Chris Hyser has raised $155,000 and has received some outside spending support. Lastly, former state Del. Brenda Thiam is another familiar face for local Republicans, although she's only raised about $50,000.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Trone's Senate campaign left Maryland's 6th District in the western part of the state with no incumbent. On the Democratic side, former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney and state Del. Joe Vogel look like the front-runners for the Democratic nod. McClain Delaney's name may sound familiar: Her husband, former Rep. John Delaney, represented the old version of this district for three terms. Running on her connections to Biden and work to keep kids safe online, McClain Delaney has self-funded a bit more than half of the $1.9 million she's raised, and she has some high-profile endorsements, including from The Washington Post.

Meanwhile, Vogel is a 27-year-old Latino legislator who is also gay and Jewish. He has raised $687,000 and enjoys endorsements from the powerful state teachers union and the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. He's also received nearly $400,000 in outside spending help from the pro-LGBTQ Equality PAC, according to OpenSecrets. Competing surveys show a close race: A late April Public Policy Polling survey for McClain Delaney's campaign gave her a 37-percent-to-24-percent lead.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

As Geoffrey alluded to, the unexpected entrance of AIPAC's super PAC, United Democracy Project, into the Democratic primary in Maryland's 3rd District is one of the biggest stories in Maryland politics right now. The pro-Israel group arguably upended the race with its significant spending (More than $4.2 million as of Friday) on behalf of Elfreth, elevating her from a pack of a half-dozen current and former elected officials — three state delegates, another state senator and a prominent labor attorney — to be the top challenger against Dunn.

UDP has lapped the entire field in spending on TV, allowing Elfreth to go punch-for-punch against Dunn even though he has dominated fundraising (although, after UDP entered the race, Elfreth's own fundraising picked up too). Lam had been keeping pace with Elfreth in fundraising until UDP got involved, but he simply hasn't been able to compete in the ad wars and now lags in polling.

What makes UDP's involvement particularly striking is that neither Elfreth nor Dunn are focused on Israel issues or appear to have much daylight between them on the topic. Dunn even produced a white paper arguing for unconditional support for Israel and its right to defend itself. That's a difference from some other races UDP has gotten into, including a very expensive primary in Maryland's 4th District in 2022 and the recent Republican primary in Indiana's 8th District, both of which featured candidates with records that frustrated the pro-Israel group.

UDP's stated reason for spending here, according to the Huffington Post, was actually to stop John Morse, a labor attorney who has been critical of the Israeli government since Oct. 7. But that explanation has never really held water among Maryland political observers for the simple reason that, despite an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders and some progressive backing, Morse has never been a factor in the race. He's raised just $123,000 — a fraction of Elfreth's haul, let alone Dunn's — and has never polled higher than 3 percent. If that's the real reason, it's not a wildly compelling one.

Some Dunn allies believe the real reason is donor maintenance on UDP's part — that one or a handful of the group's donors have beef with Dunn unrelated to Israel and are using UDP as a conduit to block him. It's speculation, but it's as good a theory as any that UDP has offered itself, especially since the group continued to pour money into the district long after it was clear Morse was destined to be an also-ran.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections