Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: August 6, 2024, 6:01 PM EDT

Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.

The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.

Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Aug 06, 2024, 8:39 PM EDT

First votes in Michigan's 10th

Good evening! I'll be watching the Democratic primary in Michigan's 10th District tonight, where 2022 nominee Carl Marlinga is facing off against three other contenders for a chance to take on GOP Rep. John James. Marlinga lost to James by only 1,600 votes two years ago, but is a weak fundraiser and national party leaders have not invested in him. Marlinga is a familiar name in the district, serving as a judge and prosecutor over several decades, but has some real political baggage: He was acquitted of corruption charges two decades ago and has faced heat for some of his clients as a defense attorney.

But the rest of the Democratic field doesn't inspire much confidence either. Financial planner Diane Young, gun violence prevention advocate Emily Busch, and state board of education member Tiffany Tilley have not been able to gain traction in fundraising, while best-funded option, physician Anil Kumar, was bounced from the ballot over signature issues.

Right now we've got a little bit of the vote counted in the district (roughly 2 percent) but all of it is from Oakland County. Marlinga leads Young, 39 percent to 31 percent, without anything from his home base of Macomb.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Aug 06, 2024, 8:37 PM EDT

Anti-abortion candidates in Missouri

That's interesting, Mary. As I wrote earlier, I'll be tracking anti-abortion candidates, as we do with every liveblog. On the Republican side in Missouri, 13 anti-abortion candidates are seeking nominations in congressional races, and five anti-abortion Republicans are seeking the nomination in the open race for governor.

Voters in Missouri also may have a chance to vote on a ballot that would restore abortion rights in the state. But while that initiative might be popular, that doesn't mean voters won't also choose conservative representatives. There are numerous examples of red-state voters supporting surprisingly progressive initiatives.

—Monica Potts, 538

Aug 06, 2024, 8:17 PM EDT

Missouri Democrats list abortion as the most important issue facing the state

Throughout the primary process, we've been checking in on how voters across the country are viewing the issues. In most cases, voters say that the economy is the most important issue, and Missouri is no different: in a mid-June survey from Emerson/The Hill, 34 percent of respondents said that the "economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" was the most important issue facing the state. The next most important issue, "abortion access," was chosen by 12 percent of respondents, and "immigration" was chosen by 10 percent. No other issue was selected by more than 10 percent of respondents.

But, in what may be a first this year, the top issue for Democratic voters in the Show Me State was abortion access, chosen by 22 percent of Democratic respondents. This was followed by the economy at 21 percent and healthcare at 18 percent, with no other issue in double digits. Abortion is illegal in Missouri in almost all circumstances, including cases of rape and incest.

For Republicans in Missouri, on the other hand, only two issues were selected as most important by more than 10 percent of registered voters: the economy (45 percent) and immigration (16 percent). In stark contrast to Democrats, just 5 percent of Republicans listed abortion access as the top issue. But it was also important among independents, 12 percent of whom said it was their top issue (second only to the economy).

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Aug 06, 2024, 8:06 PM EDT

A candidate dropped a gubernatorial bid to run in Washington's 6th District … will it pay off?

The 6th District, covering Washington's Kitsap and Olympic Peninsulas and most of Tacoma, is home to an open primary after Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer announced his retirement. Democrat Hilary Franz, the state's public lands commissioner, suspended a gubernatorial bid to run for this seat and snagged Kilmer's endorsement for her trouble. For a moment it seemed like Franz, who is leading in fundraising, was a shoo-in for the seat, but this has actually shaped up to be a competitive race.

Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall isn't far behind Franz in funds — she's raised over $1 million, close to Franz's $1.3 million — and has collected a stack of high-profile endorsements, including Sen. Patty Murray and former Gov. Christine Gregoire. This is a race worth keeping an eye on as voters might end up seeing double with a Democrat-versus-Democrat general election between two candidates who agree on nearly all the issues.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538