The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.
Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!
Jacob, I'm surprised that Reddy is doing so poorly given his financial advantage, but in-district observers seem to have had a feeling something like this might happen. As Matt Klein wrote for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Reddy ran kind of a lackluster campaign, and Crnkovich even snagged the endorsement of the Kansas City Star.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Well, Monica, if Missouri voters do get to vote directly on a ballot measure protecting abortion access, that may dramatically change the landscape in the state. For example, another state with a primary today, Michigan, voted in 2022 to add the right to access abortion to the state constitution. Perhaps as a result, it's one of the only states we've seen this cycle where abortion access isn't a top priority for Democrats.
In a late July poll from Emerson/The Hill, Democrats listed their top issues as the "economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" (30 percent), "threats to democracy" (20 percent) and "housing affordability" (15 percent). "Abortion access" was chosen by only 8 percent of Michigan Democrats.
Republicans in the state, however, look a lot like Republicans everywhere: Their top issues are the economy (52 percent chose this issue) and immigration (17 percent).
As Geoffrey mentioned earlier, some attacks against Marlinga in Michigan's 10th that Jacob was just discussing have focused on his record on abortion — but with Democrats in the state no longer focused on the issue, we'll have to see how well those will land.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
In Kansas' 3rd District, which includes parts of Kansas City, Kansas, oncologist Prasanth Reddy only leads his opponent Karen Crnkovich 55 percent to 45 percent. Reddy outspent Crnkovich 6 to 1 and had endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main GOP House super PAC. Both would be underdogs against Rep. Sharice Davids, who's proven herself to be a fighter in this district even after Republicans redrew it to make her path to victory more complicated following the 2020 Census.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Good evening! I'll be watching the Democratic primary in Michigan's 10th District tonight, where 2022 nominee Carl Marlinga is facing off against three other contenders for a chance to take on GOP Rep. John James. Marlinga lost to James by only 1,600 votes two years ago, but is a weak fundraiser and national party leaders have not invested in him. Marlinga is a familiar name in the district, serving as a judge and prosecutor over several decades, but has some real political baggage: He was acquitted of corruption charges two decades ago and has faced heat for some of his clients as a defense attorney.
But the rest of the Democratic field doesn't inspire much confidence either. Financial planner Diane Young, gun violence prevention advocate Emily Busch, and state board of education member Tiffany Tilley have not been able to gain traction in fundraising, while best-funded option, physician Anil Kumar, was bounced from the ballot over signature issues.
Right now we've got a little bit of the vote counted in the district (roughly 2 percent) but all of it is from Oakland County. Marlinga leads Young, 39 percent to 31 percent, without anything from his home base of Macomb.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
