Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

The AP has projected that attorney Paul Hudson will defeat financial adviser Michael Markey in the Republican primary in Michigan's 3rd District. With 56 percent of the expected vote reporting, Hudson leads about 55 percent to 45 percent, and critically he holds a 16-point lead in Kent County (home to Grand Rapids), where most of the race's remaining votes will be tallied. That's left Markey with no potentially favorable turf to hope for a comeback. This sets Hudson up to face Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten in November in what could be a competitive tilt, although Scholten will start as a favorite in the blue-leaning seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In Washington's comfortably blue 6th District, the AP reports that about 60 percent of the expected vote has reported. And currently, Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall leads with 33 percent, followed by Republican state Sen. Drew McEwen with 31 percent and Democratic Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz with 26 percent. Franz had the most notoriety entering this race as a statewide official, but Randall received a huge amount of outside backing — $2.4 million to Franz's $55,000, according to OpenSecrets — which may be making a big difference for her. The question now is, might Franz catch McEwen and force an all-Democratic general election?

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The challenge for Newhouse, though, is that studies suggest that many Democrats might just not cast a ballot in this race if presented with two Republican choices in November. A 2020 study found that "orphaned" voters in a top-two primary state — that is, those who identified or leaned toward a party that didn't have a candidate in the general election — were nearly 20 percent more likely to not cast a vote at all compared to those who did have a candidate from their party. So while I think Newhouse could win over some Democrats against a Trump-backed contender, he also could struggle because he couldn't count on them not abstaining. Additionally, running a more openly anti-Trump campaign to win them over would probably redound to Sessler's benefit.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I agree with Jacob — In a Newhouse vs. pro-Trump Republican matchup, I think I'd rather be Newhouse. In 2020 and 2022, his Democratic opponent won over 30 percent of the vote in this solidly red seat. If no Democrat appears on the ballot, I'd expect the Democrats in the district to prefer a candidate that stood up to Trump and voted for his impeachment over one that got his endorsement. So even if a majority of Republican voters abandon Newhouse, he could hope that Democratic voters might be enough to put him over the edge.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538