Missouri will elect a new governor in 2024, with today's Republican primary likely to be decisive in this solidly red state. Thanks to strong name recognition (his father, former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, is a former Missouri governor and senator), Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft started off the year with a healthy lead in the polls. However, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe outraised Ashcroft $4.2 million to $1.4 million and, in total ad spending, Kehoe and his allies have outpaced Ashcroft and friends $11.2 million to $6.5 million, per AdImpact. Tellingly, once Kehoe's side started deploying that cash, Ashcroft's lead evaporated: According to 538's polling average of the race, Ashcroft and Kehoe go into the primary running almost even at around 25 percent apiece.

A third candidate, state Sen. Bill Eigel, sits at 16 percent and can't be counted out either. He also raised more than Ashcroft at $1.7 million — with $4.4 million in total ad support — and he's the farthest right of the trio, with a reputation for holding legislation hostage until he gets what he wants. For his part, Ashcroft has campaigned as a staunch conservative as well, while Kehoe is seen as the most mild-mannered candidate in the race. However, perhaps the best chance to halt Kehoe's momentum evaporated last week when Trump endorsed Kehoe … and Ashcroft … and Eigel. It was Trump's first-ever three-way endorsement and ensured this primary will go into election day with no clear favorite.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington there are 38 candidates whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "protect life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights. As usual, we'll be tracking how they do tonight.

Despite being a reliably red state, Kansas has become a frequent battleground for abortion rights. In August 2022, shortly after Roe v. Wade fell, Kansas voters famously rejected a referendum that would have removed abortion protections from the state constitution. But some restrictions remain, including a ban on abortions after 22 weeks of pregnancy. In the past two years, the state's Republican legislative majority has tried to pass even more restrictions, which have been rejected by the Democratic governor and shot down by the state Supreme Court. At least one Republican in each of the state's four congressional districts is running on an explicitly anti-abortion platform, including two of the five candidates in the 2nd District's open-seat race.

Abortion was banned in Missouri when a trigger law passed in 2019 went into effect after Roe v. Wade was overturned. But this year, voters may have the chance to pass a ballot measure that would restore abortion rights in the state. Polls suggest a plurality of voters in the state support the measure, but nearly a fifth remain unsure about it. But in line with the state's red lean, all three leading Republican candidates for the wide-open governor's race (Ashcroft, Keho and Eigel) are on our anti-abortion candidates list. The same is true of front-runners Onder and Schaefer in the solid-red 3rd District, where we're also keeping a close eye on an open-seat GOP primary.

Abortion is protected in Michigan and Washington. Accordingly, more of the anti-abortion candidates running in these states are minor candidates, though the list includes embattled Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse, who's fending off two serious challengers from his right, and Sherry O'Donnell, a physician and pastor running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Michigan with far-right backing — though she'll have a hard time beating out Trump-endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers in that race.

—Monica Potts, 538

After GOP Rep. Jake LaTurner announced in April that he wouldn't seek reelection, five Republicans jumped into the primary race for his safe red seat in Kansas's 2nd District, which covers much of the eastern part of the state. Front-runner and former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt has high name recognition and a solid donor base in the state: He was his party's gubernatorial nominee in 2022, losing narrowly to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, and served as majority leader in the state Senate before his stint as AG. As of mid-July, Schmidt was leading the money race with over $497,000 raised as well as almost $287,000 in favorable outside spending.

His main opponents are former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs, a veteran of both state and federal government who's self-funded more than two-thirds of the $433,000 he's raised, and rancher and feedlot owner Shawn Tiffany, a political newcomer who's raised almost $379,000. Schmidt notably tacked right during his gubernatorial run, and is likely trying to stay there, as both Kahrs and Tiffany are playing up their conservative bona fides. All three candidates have emphasized immigration and an "America first" conservative agenda, but Kahrs has branded himself as the "only conservative" in the race and prominently featured his role in the Trump administration (though Schmidt is the one with Trump's endorsement), while Tiffany has attacked Schmidt as a "career politician" and called him a "Republican in name only."

There's only been one poll in this race, and it was from ages ago (mid-May). While nearly half of respondents were still undecided at that point, Schmidt's name recognition clearly made him the candidate to beat: He had 44 percent support compared to Kahrs's 4 percent and Tiffany's 3 percent.

—Tia Yang, 538

Michigan is the only out-and-out battleground state voting on Tuesday, and its headline race is an open U.S. Senate seat that Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow's retirement has left up for grabs. On the Democratic side, Rep. Elissa Slotkin looks well-positioned to defeat actor Hill Harper: She's regularly polled above 50 percent in the primary contest while outraising Harper $24.1 million to $2.8 million.

Until a couple of weeks ago, the Republican primary contest looked at least somewhat more competitive. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who retired from Congress in the 2014 cycle and had previously been critical of Trump, shifted his rhetoric and garnered the former president's endorsement in March, which along with his fundraising haul of $5.4 million has made him the favorite. Businessman Sandy Pensler, who'd self-funded almost all of his campaign's $5.0 million war chest, did seem to have the wherewithal to challenge Rogers. But on July 20, Pensler dropped out and endorsed Rogers, making the former congressman an even clearer favorite.

Now Rogers only has to contend with two other candidates, both of whom have criticized Rogers's conservative bona fides. The more notable name is former Rep. Justin Amash, who famously left the GOP to become an independent and voted to impeach Trump in 2019. In his campaign, Amash has run as a small-government critic of Rogers, whom Amash has accused of being an "establishment stooge" and part of the "deep state." Still, Amash has only raised $703,000, and while pro-Amash groups have forked out $1.7 million to boost him or attack Rogers, that's a far cry from the $5.0 million that outside groups have spent to help Rogers. Additionally, physician and pastor Sherry O'Donnell is running as an ardently pro-Trump candidate with endorsements from a number of far-right figures. But she's only brought in $434,000 and has received no outside assistance.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538