Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states have yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. This Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas are heading to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hangs in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member faces a serious challenger backed by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump is being challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties will lock in their nominees for Michigan's critical Senate race, and Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri's next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields will be set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines will be drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors are breaking down the election results as they come in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Follow along with our full live blog below!
Kansas Republicans will pick who challenges Rep. Sharice Davids this fall
The GOP primary in Kansas's 3rd District has a clear frontrunner in Prasanth Reddy, a cancer physician, medical executive and Air Force reservist who's racked up endorsements (and funding) from the national party and prominent GOP leaders. Reddy has played up his immigrant background while emphasizing issues of border security and said he's running to counter "extremist" Democrats in Congress. He's pulled in over $1.3 million, more than eight times the funding as his only competitor in the primary, businesswoman Karen Crnkovich. But even if Reddy runs away with it, Tuesday's race is worth watching as a prequel to what could be a competitive contest this fall, when the winner will face off against Rep. Sharice Davids, the only Democrat in the state's congressional delegation and one of the GOP's top House targets this year.
—Tia Yang, 538
6:48 PM EDT
What happens when Trump endorses more than one Republican in the same race?
In today's slate of gubernatorial and congressional primaries, Trump has endorsed 25 Republican contenders across 22 different races. If you're wondering why that doesn't seemingly add up, it's because Trump has endorsed more than one candidate in two different primaries: the gubernatorial race in Missouri and Washington's 4th District. Doing so has expanded the universe of potential winners with Trump's stamp of approval — but the perceived value of his endorsement will also be harder to ascertain in those primaries.
In Missouri, Trump told GOP primary voters they "can't go wrong" in their choice for governor. He endorsed Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel, all of whom are polling between about 16 and 26 percent in surveys ahead of today's vote. And while we don't have it in the table above, he also endorsed both of the high-profile Republican contenders in the state's attorney general primary, too.
Endorsing more than one candidate in the same race is a rare move for Trump, although it's one he's pulled in Missouri before. Back in 2022, he endorsed "ERIC" in the Show Me State's Republican primary for U.S. Senate, which happened to be the first name of both major GOP aspirants: former Gov. Eric Greitens and then-Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, the latter of whom won the primary and is now in the Senate.
Trump also endorsed two Republicans in Washington's 4th District: former NASCAR driver Jerrold Sessler and veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley. Trump is hoping that either Sessler, whom he endorsed first, or Smiley, whom he backed the weekend before the primary, can oust GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of the two House Republicans still in Congress who voted to impeach Trump after the events of Jan. 6.
Republican Tiffany Smiley speaks Aug. 2, 2022, at a Republican Party event on Election Day in Issaquah, Wash.
Ted S. Warren/AP
Overall, Trump's multi-endorsement approach has edged up this cycle. Besides the Missouri and Washington races, Trump also endorsed two major Republican candidates in the primary for Arizona's 8th District that took place last week.
The Republican primary for Missouri attorney general is a battle between two culture warriors. After former Attorney General Eric Schmitt was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022, Gov. Mike Parson appointed his general counsel, Andrew Bailey, to the post. Bailey is now seeking his first full term in office, but first he'll have to get through Will Scharf, who is one of Trump's personal attorneys.
Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey speaks to reporters, Aug. 1, 2024, at the Capitol in Jefferson City, Mo.
David A. Lieb/AP
As attorney general, Bailey has thrown his office's weight behind many a conservative cause célèbre; last year, he issued (but eventually rescinded) emergency rules that limited access to gender-affirming care for both children and adults, and in July he sued New York over Trump's criminal conviction there. But Scharf actually argues that Bailey hasn't been enough of an activist AG, and he's tried to frame himself as a "conservative outsider" facing off against "the Jefferson City establishment."
Indeed, virtually every major Republican in state politics, including Parson, Schmitt and Sen. Josh Hawley, has endorsed Bailey. And if Scharf thought his old boss would come through for him, he was sadly disappointed: Trump issued yet another wishy-washy endorsement in this race, giving both candidates his seal of approval. And although, thanks to profligate spending from the Club for Growth, Scharf has more money behind him than Bailey does, it looks like incumbency will carry the day here: A July 10-11 poll from co/efficient sponsored by Bailey's campaign gave Bailey a 21-point lead.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
6:36 PM EDT
Missouri will elect a new governor this year
Missouri will elect a new governor in 2024, with today's Republican primary likely to be decisive in this solidly red state. Thanks to strong name recognition (his father, former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, is a former Missouri governor and senator), Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft started off the year with a healthy lead in the polls. However, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe outraised Ashcroft $4.2 million to $1.4 million and, in total ad spending, Kehoe and his allies have outpaced Ashcroft and friends $11.2 million to $6.5 million, per AdImpact. Tellingly, once Kehoe's side started deploying that cash, Ashcroft's lead evaporated: According to 538's polling average of the race, Ashcroft and Kehoe go into the primary running almost even at around 25 percent apiece.
538's polling average of the Missouri governor Republican primary as of Aug. 5 at 2 p.m. Eastern.
538 photo illustration
A third candidate, state Sen. Bill Eigel, sits at 16 percent and can't be counted out either. He also raised more than Ashcroft at $1.7 million — with $4.4 million in total ad support — and he's the farthest right of the trio, with a reputation for holding legislation hostage until he gets what he wants. For his part, Ashcroft has campaigned as a staunch conservative as well, while Kehoe is seen as the most mild-mannered candidate in the race. However, perhaps the best chance to halt Kehoe's momentum evaporated last week when Trump endorsed Kehoe … and Ashcroft … and Eigel. It was Trump's first-ever three-way endorsement and ensured this primary will go into election day with no clear favorite.
