Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states have yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. This Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive “Squad” member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump is being challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields are being set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors are breaking down the election results as they come in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Follow along with our full live blog below!
Can a 2022 upset winner defend her territory in southwest Washington?
If you were paying attention to the 2022 midterms, you may remember the major upset that was Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's win in Washington's 3rd District, north of Portland, Oregon. The 538 forecast back then showed Gluesenkamp Perez winning just 2 in 100 times over Republican Joe Kent in this red-leaning district. Now, it looks like we're poised for a rematch as Kent, alongside one other Republican and an independent, is running in the primary, hoping for the chance to unseat the freshman congresswoman in November.
Rep.-elect Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is pictured at the Capitol in Washington, Nov. 15, 2022.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP
Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent are most likely to make the ballot in November — they easily lead in fundraising and are neck-and-neck in polls. That would set up what looks to be a competitive race this fall. Kent, a former Green Beret and a 2020 election denier (who did concede his own 2022 loss following a recount), once again has the backing of Trump. And while Gluesenkamp Perez has proven to be a moderate Democrat in office (she is co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition), the results of this primary might give us a clue about whether she can once again overcome her district's conservative lean come November.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
7:01 PM EDT
The GOP hopes to capture Michigan's Democratic-held 3rd District
In the competitive but blue-leaning 3rd District centered on Grand Rapids, two Republicans are battling to face Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten. The money race has been close, as businessman Michael Markey has raised $793,000 to attorney Paul Hudson's $630,000 (both have self-funded to a sizable extent). But Hudson may have the upper hand thanks to West Michigan for Change, an outside group funded by his brother that has spent $698,000 supporting Hudson or attacking Markey.
The race has become fairly ugly, as WMFC has argued that Markey supported the Green New Deal, a position associated with progressives, while Markey has sought to link Hudson to the Chinese Communist Party because Hudson once represented a Chinese auto parts supplier. We've seen no polls of this race, so it's hard to know who will advance to go up against Scholten, who looks likely to win renomination in her own primary.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
6:54 PM EDT
Kansas Republicans will pick who challenges Rep. Sharice Davids this fall
The GOP primary in Kansas's 3rd District has a clear frontrunner in Prasanth Reddy, a cancer physician, medical executive and Air Force reservist who's racked up endorsements (and funding) from the national party and prominent GOP leaders. Reddy has played up his immigrant background while emphasizing issues of border security and said he's running to counter "extremist" Democrats in Congress. He's pulled in over $1.3 million, more than eight times the funding as his only competitor in the primary, businesswoman Karen Crnkovich. But even if Reddy runs away with it, Tuesday's race is worth watching as a prequel to what could be a competitive contest this fall, when the winner will face off against Rep. Sharice Davids, the only Democrat in the state's congressional delegation and one of the GOP's top House targets this year.
—Tia Yang, 538
6:48 PM EDT
What happens when Trump endorses more than one Republican in the same race?
In today's slate of gubernatorial and congressional primaries, Trump has endorsed 25 Republican contenders across 22 different races. If you're wondering why that doesn't seemingly add up, it's because Trump has endorsed more than one candidate in two different primaries: the gubernatorial race in Missouri and Washington's 4th District. Doing so has expanded the universe of potential winners with Trump's stamp of approval — but the perceived value of his endorsement will also be harder to ascertain in those primaries.
In Missouri, Trump told GOP primary voters they "can't go wrong" in their choice for governor. He endorsed Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel, all of whom are polling between about 16 and 26 percent in surveys ahead of today's vote. And while we don't have it in the table above, he also endorsed both of the high-profile Republican contenders in the state's attorney general primary, too.
Endorsing more than one candidate in the same race is a rare move for Trump, although it's one he's pulled in Missouri before. Back in 2022, he endorsed "ERIC" in the Show Me State's Republican primary for U.S. Senate, which happened to be the first name of both major GOP aspirants: former Gov. Eric Greitens and then-Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, the latter of whom won the primary and is now in the Senate.
Trump also endorsed two Republicans in Washington's 4th District: former NASCAR driver Jerrold Sessler and veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley. Trump is hoping that either Sessler, whom he endorsed first, or Smiley, whom he backed the weekend before the primary, can oust GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of the two House Republicans still in Congress who voted to impeach Trump after the events of Jan. 6.
Republican Tiffany Smiley speaks Aug. 2, 2022, at a Republican Party event on Election Day in Issaquah, Wash.
Ted S. Warren/AP
Overall, Trump's multi-endorsement approach has edged up this cycle. Besides the Missouri and Washington races, Trump also endorsed two major Republican candidates in the primary for Arizona's 8th District that took place last week.
