Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Again per the Associated Press via The New York Times, Trump leads Haley 53 percent to 46 percent with 12 percent of the estimated vote counted. That's closer than the polls foresaw, but obviously not good enough for Haley so far.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
If there's any state where Republican primary voters are likely to worry about Trump's ability to win in November, it might just be New Hampshire. In 2010, after the establishment-backed Kelly Ayotte won the GOP Senate primary there by a hair, she won the general election by more than 20 percentage points. In 2022, however, after the Trump-style Don Bolduc narrowly prevailed in the GOP Senate primary, he lost the general by almost 10 points.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
The Associated Press (via The New York Times) is showing 12 percent of the expected vote already counted on the Democratic side. Write-ins — likely mostly votes for Biden — lead with 73 percent, followed by Phillips at 22 percent and Williamson at 4 percent. That would be a robust showing for the president.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
At around 4:30 p.m., Americans for Prosperity Regional Director Greg Moore said on X (formerly Twitter) that he'd heard from sources in the New Hampshire secretary of state office that towns around the state had gone through more than 80 percent of GOP primary ballots available statewide, and that some towns were calling to ask for more to avoid running out. Polls in much of the state closed at 7 p.m Eastern, but a few places are open until 8 p.m.
Now, the Koch-affiliated AFP endorsed Haley to much fanfare earlier this cycle, so high turnout certainly would make Haley supporters feel hopeful about the number of independent voters taking part in the primary, who generally are more likely to support Haley than Trump. Still, ABC News's current total expected vote total in New Hampshire is 330,000 votes. Although that figure may change as the night wears on — it could go higher or lower — that many votes would represent nearly 30 percent of the state's entire voting-eligible population — that is, anyone who is eligible to register and vote. A turnout rate at that mark would be on par with the highest turnout in the state's modern history, which was the highly-competitive 2008 Democratic presidential primary.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Voters head to the polls in high-stakes primary
