New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 23, 2024, 4:30 PM EST

Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.

ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Dan Hopkins Image
ByDan Hopkins
Jan 23, 2024, 7:51 PM EST

Where Trump stands relative to 2016

Looking at towns where the vote is mostly counted, Trump is overperforming his 2016 benchmarks — but then again, he should be, since in 2016 he won with 35 percent of the vote in a many-candidate field. Trump will hope that the returns look like those in Farmington, where he's currently up 29 percentage points compared to his 2016 margin. But Haley will hope they look more like Newmarket or Conway, where Trump is only up by 15 or 16 percentage points.

— Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

ByMary Radcliffe
Jan 23, 2024, 7:39 PM EST

New Hampshire voters look at Trump differently than Iowa voters

If voters in New Hampshire are thinking about the general election, Dan, that could be a problem for Trump. Last week, just 52 percent of Iowa caucusgoers voted for Trump. But according to a December YouGov/CBS News poll, likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters view the former president differently than those in Iowa. In that survey, 64 percent of likely voters in Iowa said that Trump would definitely beat Biden in November, while only 51 percent of New Hampshire voters said the same. Voters who said they were considering other candidates also had different reasons in the two states: 70 percent of likely New Hampshire voters who were considering voting against Trump said that one reason, of those provided to them, was that Trump is controversial, while only 57 percent of Iowans considering other candidates said the same. And more New Hampshirites were concerned about Trump's ability to beat Biden than Iowans considering other candidates.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jan 23, 2024, 7:38 PM EST

A close race on the GOP side

Again per the Associated Press via The New York Times, Trump leads Haley 53 percent to 46 percent with 12 percent of the estimated vote counted. That's closer than the polls foresaw, but obviously not good enough for Haley so far.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Dan Hopkins Image
ByDan Hopkins
Jan 23, 2024, 7:33 PM EST

New Hampshire GOP voters know the difference a candidate can make come November

If there's any state where Republican primary voters are likely to worry about Trump's ability to win in November, it might just be New Hampshire. In 2010, after the establishment-backed Kelly Ayotte won the GOP Senate primary there by a hair, she won the general election by more than 20 percentage points. In 2022, however, after the Trump-style Don Bolduc narrowly prevailed in the GOP Senate primary, he lost the general by almost 10 points.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

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