Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Lebanon, New Hampshire, is a town with many college graduates on the Connecticut River just south of Hanover. Haley has 62 percent of the vote their. However, Trump grew his vote share there, too — from 22 percent to in 2016 to 37 percent today.
— Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
The capital city of Concord has just about fully reported now, based on data from ABC News. With 95 percent of the expected vote reported, Haley leads there by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent. That sounds great for her, but this is probably short of where she needs to be. Concord is a solid Democratic-leaning place — Biden won it by about 32 points in 2020 — so the registered independents here might be more favorable to her. But in the 2016 GOP primary, Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson combined for 41 percent in Concord, yet Trump has 46 percent right now. To have any chance, Haley probably needs places like this to be even more robust for her.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
One issue where Haley stands out is in foreign policy. Her history as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations gives her experience, and her policy positions place her at odds with the frontrunner. The Republican Party has followed Trump's lead in recent year's and become more isolationist. But Haley has taken a more traditional stance and has called for continuing aid to Ukraine, an issue that's becoming less popular with her party's voters. But she also has taken a hard line against China and supports continuing aid for Israel, which the Republican base also supports.
—Monica Potts, 538
