Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Whether Haley loses by 10 or 13 points tonight, I think we can all agree Trump is still on track to win — almost certainly, if we're being probabilistic. But as we just saw, that does not mean Haley will quit! So, what does the team think about how long she will hold on? Does she run all the way through South Carolina, where Trump is currently approaching a 40-point lead?
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
Coming into today, a big question was whether independents would turn out a high level and put Haley in a competitive position versus Trump. Based on the preliminary exit poll, the answer was yes — but not enough for Haley to win. Overall, 45 percent of voters identified as independent or something else, and they went for Haley by 24 points, 61 percent to 37 percent. However, self-identified Republicans made up 4 percent of the electorate and. broke for Trump by 39 points, 74 percent to 25 percent. Even with a little help from the 6 percent who identified as Democrats (went for Haley 84 percent to 6 percent), Haley couldn't catch Trump because of his overwhelming edge among Republicans.
Another aspect of the independent question is New Hampshire's electoral access rules, which permit those not registered with a party — "undeclared" voters — to vote in party primaries. That group, which includes many self-identified independents, did turn out in a big way, making up 47 percent of the electorate to registered Republicans' 50 percent (same-day registrants made up the rest). And Haley won among undeclared voters 66 percent to 32 percent. But Trump won among registered Republicans 74 percent to 24 percent. These numbers will change somewhat after further weighting based on the results, but the big takeaway is that independents put Haley in range, but Trump's dominance among Republicans preserved his edge.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
As Meredith and Monica noted, Haley really emphasized electability in her speech. The difficulty with that argument is that poll after poll shows Republicans think Trump is electable in the general. For example, this YouGov/The Economist poll from early January shows 82 percent of Republicans saying Trump would definitely or probably win the general election, but only 37 percent say the same about Haley.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Haley promised to stay in the primary race at a speech tonight just after 8 p.m., when most news organizations had projected the race for Trump. She again made her pitch as one of electability, and slightly attacked the front-runner, Trump, to cheers from the crowd. "The worst kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump," she said, saying Biden could defeat him but that she could win. With Trump, the story is court cases, chaos, and senior moments, she said. "I've long called for mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75," she said. "Trump claims he'd do better than me in one of those tests. If he thinks that, then he should have no problem standing on a debate stage with me." It's unlikely Trump would debate her, but the crowd in New Hampshire ate it up, calling Trump a loser and geriatric. "The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate will win this election," she said. We'll see in her home state of South Carolina, in about a month.
—Monica Potts, 538
Nikki Haley speaks after Trump projected to win New Hampshire primary
